Valdai Club

We can assume that the new Iranian president and his pro-reform team will strive to pursue a more balanced foreign policy course; without highlighting any of its directions, it will advance where circumstances allow, without crossing the “red lines” outlined by Iran’s top leadership, Alexander Maryasov writes.

In the near and medium term, the situation in the Middle East will remain extremely tense. Israel is unlikely to be able to completely suppress the resistance of Hamas and keep the entire Gaza Strip under its control; it will therefore continue military operations with varying degrees of intensity. This will motivate Hezbollah to encourage Tehran in increasing the degree of armed confrontation with Israel, increasing the range of shelling of its territory, Alexander Maryasov writes.

The emerging geopolitical realities create objective prerequisites for rapprochement between Moscow and Tehran, for the activation and expansion of cooperation in the military-political, trade, economic, scientific, technical and other fields, in order to neutralize the consequences of military threats and sanctions pressure from the West, as well as its attempts to isolate Russia and Iran and prevent the formation of a new world order, writes Valdai Club expert Alexander Maryasov.

It is becoming increasingly clear that neither Washington nor Tehran want the Vienna talks to fail and the confrontation to escalate. Both sides understand that they will not be able to achieve their maximalist goals, writes Valdai Club expert Alexander Maryasov.


To avoid further radicalisation of the situation in the Middle East, Washington and Tehran must find a modus vivendi in their relations that would prevent the development of events according to a catastrophic scenario. To do this, the United States needs to free itself from the burden of historical grievances, illusions and anti-Iranian phobias, often fictitious, to recognise existing realities, Valdai Club expert Alexander Maryasov writes.

A chance to revive the JCPOA exists if the US doesn’t make it dependent on new demands that exceed the requirements of the 2015 Vienna agreements but rather delays this discussion until the atmosphere for reviewing mutual concerns improves, writes Valdai Club expert Alexander Maryasov.

The emerging domestic political situation is forcing rival groups from the Iranian establishment (reformers and radicals) to join forces in countering external pressure and the US attempts to isolate Iran economically and politically.

Trump continues to show a misleading peaceful disposition and has announced his intention to come to an understanding with Iran, sit at the negotiating table without pre-conditions and agree on a de-escalation of tensions in bilateral relations and normalization in the region.

The United States continues to believe that its withdrawal from the JCPOA and tougher sanctions will seriously aggravate Iran’s domestic socio-economic problems and would force Tehran to negotiate the nuclear issues and other matters on Washington’s terms.

As soon as the emotions calmed down following the mysterious explosions aboard the Norwegian and Japanese oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, which the United States and its Western allies immediately and without any evidence blamed on Tehran, a new tanker incident happened on July 4 in the Strait of Gibraltar. British marines detained the Iranian supertanker Grace 1, which was carrying either crude oil (according to the British version of the story) or refined oil products (according to one of the international think tanks).