In the near and medium term, the situation in the Middle East will remain extremely tense. Israel is unlikely to be able to completely suppress the resistance of Hamas and keep the entire Gaza Strip under its control; it will therefore continue military operations with varying degrees of intensity. This will motivate Hezbollah to encourage Tehran in increasing the degree of armed confrontation with Israel, increasing the range of shelling of its territory, Alexander Maryasov writes.
The unresolved Palestinian problem has once again blown up the Middle East. The latest round of Palestinian-Israeli military confrontation is increasingly affecting other Arab countries, exacerbating simmering conflicts in the region and creating new points of tension.
With the brutal October 7 attack on Israel, Hamas militants opened a Pandora’s box in the Middle East. This attack was an evidence of the growing radicalisation of the Hamas movement. The main reasons driving this are Israel’s persistent reluctance to agree to the creation of a Palestinian state and the passivity of the Islamic world and the international community as a whole towards this goal.
The Hamas terrorist attack sharply increased the belligerence of the Israeli leadership and mobilised Israeli society to support the ongoing military activity of Netanyahu’s “war cabinet” against Hamas. Israel responded with military actions unprecedented in their scale and cruelty throughout the Gaza Strip, declaring its intention to “destroy” Hamas.
The disproportionate and even harsher response of Israel, which essentially unleashed a full-scale war against Hamas, caused indignation and sharp condemnation among the Arab states and in many countries throughout the world. The most decisive was the reaction of the influential military-political Shiite group Hezbollah, operating in neighbouring Lebanon. It entered into the active exchange of missile strikes with the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) in border areas.
Unexpected for many was the opening of a new front of confrontation with Israel. Yemen’s Houthis, as a sign of solidarity and support for Hamas, began regularly shelling ships carrying cargo bound for Israel in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The United States, which supports the Jewish state, responded by bombing Houthi military positions and structures in the territory they control.
The rest of the Arab countries, condemning the actions of Tel Aviv, clearly do not want to be drawn into a military confrontation with Israel, which receives large-scale military-technical assistance and political-diplomatic support from Washington.
The developments around Palestine highlighted the growing importance and role of Iran in regional affairs. Tehran, which after the 1979 revolution declared as its foreign policy goals the promotion of the creation of a Palestinian state and the “destruction” of Israel, sharply condemned the actions of Tel Aviv and declared strong support for the struggle of the Palestinian people against “Israeli aggression.” At the same time, despite all the threats and harsh anti-Israeli rhetoric, Iran has not yet taken any serious military action against the Jewish state, well aware that this could lead to catastrophic consequences for it, especially if the United States “intercedes” for Israel. Tehran has chosen a different path. Having created an “axis of resistance” with the participation of Shiite organizations and groups in the region, including the Lebanese group Hezbollah, the Yemeni group Ansar Allah (Houthis), the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces and a number of others, Iran is increasing its military-political and financial support for them, directing these forces to carry out anti-Israeli and anti-American activity.
In the context of the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Tehran has considered it necessary and timely not only to intensify the activities of its proxy forces, but also to demonstrate its own military capabilities and readiness to respond to anti-Iranian provocations. Under the pretext of responding to terrorist acts carried out in Iran and the conflict in Palestine, the IRGC launched demonstrative missile strikes from Iranian territory against the positions of ISIS militants in Syria, a network of Mossad agents in Erbil, Iraq and the bases of the Sunni terrorist group Jayesh Al-Adel in Balochistan, Pakistan.
Along with responding to internal critics of inaction against the organizers of the recent increase in the murders of Iranian representatives both at home and abroad, the more important task of IRGC actions carried out from Iranian territory was to demonstrate the ability of Iranian ballistic missiles to accurately hit targets at a significant distance, which now makes it possible to reach Israeli territory, as well as American bases in the region.
In the near and medium term, the situation in the Middle East will remain extremely tense. Israel is unlikely to be able to completely suppress the resistance of Hamas and keep the entire Gaza Strip under its control; it will therefore continue military operations with varying degrees of intensity. This will motivate Hezbollah to encourage Tehran in increasing the degree of armed confrontation with Israel, increasing the range of shelling of its territory. Another incentive for such actions was the killing of one of the leaders of the military wing of Hamas and four employees of his office by an Israeli missile strike in Beirut.
Hezbollah promised not to abandon this action without a response. There is no doubt about Tel Aviv’s response, which could ultimately lead to Lebanon’s involvement in a full-scale military conflict with Israel.
If Iran comes to the aid of Hezbollah and launches missile attacks on Israel, then another serious conflict with difficult consequences will arise in the region.
If Israel continues military operations against Hamas, the Yemeni Houthis, who are very determined, will most likely intensify the blockade of shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. They are not frightened by the US-British missile and bomb strikes, which are unlikely to achieve the goals stated by Washington. A ground operation against the Houthis on the eve of the US presidential elections seems very risky for the administration of Joseph Biden.
Indeed, if such an operation fails, the chances of a victory for the Democrats will be sharply reduced. But even if a ground invasion does take place, it will most likely end in the same way as the American expedition to Afghanistan, given the militant nature of the Houthis and the experience they have acquired in successfully countering attacks by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries. The mountainous landscape of the territory they control will also help the Houthis, allowing them to hide missile launchers and command posts in underground shelters.
A potential source of a new threat to the stability of the region could be a possible deterioration in Iran-Pakistan relations after the recent exchange of missile strikes between these neighbouring countries. A provoking factor could be new terrorist attacks by Sunni groups carrying out subversive actions in the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchistan and hiding in the territory of the semi-autonomous Pakistani province Baluchistan.
The situation in the region may also be aggravated by the announced readiness of the Israeli special services to continue to carry out terrorist attacks against members of the Hamas leadership located in other countries. Among them is, for example, Turkey. Taking into account the rather harsh criticism by Turkish President Recep Erdogan of Israeli military actions against Hamas, such an Israeli action in the territory of Turkey may cause retaliatory action.
