On March 5, 2026, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion on the situation surrounding Iran. Moderator Timofei Bordachev, noted that the dramatic events in the Middle East are only just gaining momentum, and that their outcome and consequences remain unpredictable, just as the goals and objectives of the parties remain unclear. He invited the participants to discuss the current dynamics, as well as the possible motives of the parties and their potential resilience.
Daniel Levy, President of the US/Middle East Project (USMEP), noted that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has been trying for years to secure a US operation against Iran, but has yet to encounter an administration so supportive. However, by taking advantage of the opening “window of opportunity,” he has jeopardised relations between Israel and the United States: the war is unpopular in America and is not perceived as being in the interests of the American people. “It's more ‘Israel First’ than ‘America First,’” Levy emphasised. He said analysing what's happening is difficult due to the “fog of war” created by disinformation on both sides, but it appears that Iran is trying to deplete both Israeli and US interceptor stockpiles before it runs out of offensive weapons—to “take interceptors out of the equation.” Regarding the war's objectives, Levy suggests that Israeli leaders are not simply seeking regime change in Tehran or to limit Iran's offensive capabilities. He believes Israel wants to bring about Iran's disintegration, or at least maximise chaos and damage and maintain US regional engagement.
Alexander Maryasov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Russia to Thailand and Permanent Representative to ESCAP (2010–2014), and Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Russia to Iran (2001–2005), noted that the military conflict continues to escalate. The US and Israel are conducting intensive bombing campaigns—not only against military targets but also against civilian infrastructure. However, Iran is demonstrating resilience and withstanding the blows. The country's extensive and deeply layered system of government regulates the activities of virtually all state institutions, allowing them to continue functioning even in the most challenging times. This aggression against Iran has rallied its citizens around the flag, a sentiment reinforced by the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. For Iran, US-Israeli aggression is an existential threat, and it will defend itself to the end. It retains significant offensive capabilities, shelling Israel and US bases in the Arab Gulf states. The situation could escalate if regional proxy groups supporting Iran also direct all their forces against the Israelis and Americans. According to Maryasov, if Iran refuses to surrender and American costs and losses mount, this will create problems for Donald Trump, especially ahead of the midterm elections.
Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, discussing why the US launched military action, noted that the Trump administration is calling this war preventive, aimed at preventing an immediate threat, but has so far failed to convincingly explain what that threat really is. It also fails to identify specific American strategic interests behind the war. Trump claims that under his leadership the US is using limited force for specific goals and objectives, but this contradicts what is happening now, Kavanagh believes. The war is costly, illegal under US law, and, what's more, clearly out of control. The administration apparently expected it to be over in a couple of days, but it wasn't prepared for what was happening—and is now surprised that the Iranians haven't capitulated and that the regime is firm. Kavanagh acknowledges that certain operational goals and objectives were achieved—air defence installations, missile arsenals, and infrastructure were destroyed, and a number of high-ranking religious and political figures were killed. But a strategic victory was not achieved, if only because no strategic objectives were declared, she argues. Iran isn't winning right now, but it doesn't need to win; it needs to survive. As for the United States, it's unlikely it will be able to successfully emerge from this situation. Trump could declare victory at any moment, claiming he's achieved his stated goals, but a true victory would require the deployment of troops on the ground, the cost of which would be astronomical.
Nikolay Surkov, head of the Group for the Study of Common Regional Problems at the Centre for Middle East Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Russian Academy of Sciences, examined the situation from the perspective of the Arab Gulf states and acknowledged that a new arms race is inevitable in the Gulf, at the expense of development funding. He stated that the Gulf monarchies are experiencing their own long-standing “nightmare” – a major conflict involving Iran, in which they have become a battlefield. Surkov suggested that if Iran does not surrender and survives, two main options are possible. Either Tehran will negotiate a ceasefire, but it is unclear whom it can trust and who will serve as a guarantor. Or, more likely, it will follow the path of North Korea, relying on its own forces and possibly developing nuclear weapons. In this case, the Gulf countries will find themselves in an unenviable position – next to a neighbour willing to fight for survival by any means. Moreover, Iran's collapse is also extremely undesirable for them – unlike Israel's. They, like the US, need a weakened Iran, preoccupied with domestic issues and not interfering in the affairs of its neighbours. It's no wonder that, perceiving Iran as a threat, they deliberately pursued détente with it, hoping to contain it. As a result, their only hope now is for a swift end to the conflict with relatively little bloodshed, effectively a Trump victory. However, in reality, Surkov believes, this is unlikely to happen, and the Gulf countries will likely find themselves in a difficult position, which will undermine their development plans.
