Central Asia is a region that finds itself playing an increasingly important logistical, economic, and strategic role in contemporary Eurasian and global affairs. In this environment, Kyrgyzstan charts its foreign policy course with an emphasis on healing long-standing rifts with neighbours and bolstering regional integration—an approach that would facilitate the country’s emergence as a fully-fledged pole in the international system, writes Dr. Esen Usubaliev, Dean of the Faculty of International Relations and Oriental Studies at The Jusup Balasagyn Kyrgyz National University.
Historical Cycles
Central Asia is once again experiencing a period of heightened international interest in the region’s transport, energy, trade, economic, and other opportunities. This interest has evolved into a multitude of “Central Asia Plus” cooperation formats, engaging both Western and non-Western states in implementing concrete initiatives across the region. In this respect, Central Asia’s cycles of development have always been associated with external influence and externally oriented agendas, driven by the idea of “opening the geographically landlocked Central Asia to the world”.
The region’s two previous historical cycles—first, the attainment of independence by the Central Asian states, and later, the military operations conducted by the United States and its allies in Afghanistan—were likewise accompanied by unprecedented activism on the part of external powers and the promotion of ambitious projects aimed at integrating the region into global energy, trade, and economic markets. At that time, however, these initiatives failed to overcome the region’s inherent geographical barriers and other infrastructural constraints. Today, Central Asia’s geographical position remains unchanged, yet the international political environment has undergone profound transformations, both within the region and beyond. The third cycle of external engagement with Central Asia is inseparably linked to the onset of the Conflict in Ukraine, which has de facto evolved into an indirect military confrontation between Russia and the West. Despite the desire of a number of Central Asian states to preserve geopolitical neutrality, it must be acknowledged that the conflict between Russia and the West is directly affecting the dynamics of economic, investment, political, cultural, and humanitarian processes throughout the region, and has become the principal driver of renewed international engagement in Central Asia.
Against the backdrop of the widespread use of sanctions and tariff pressure, the use of military force outside the framework of international law, and the growing polarisation of the global political system, the future trajectory of Central Asia depends directly on the ability of the countries of the “Five” to formulate a common strategic course—a shared vision of the future that takes into account the emergence of new geopolitical realities in the region and the development of a multipolar world order. Under these complex international circumstances, it is only natural that the Central Asian states are seeking to define their own place and role within both the regional and the wider international system.
Kyrgyzstan’s Regional Vision
Over the past five years, the foreign policy of the Kyrgyz Republic—particularly with regard to Central Asia—has undergone significant transformation, ceasing to be reactive and slow to respond to regional and international developments. The country’s increasingly proactive foreign policy has coincided with an internal demand within the region for the normalisation of relations among the Central Asian states and with a shared commitment to strengthening the region’s agency—that is, its capacity to articulate common positions on issues relating to the economy, politics, security, cultural affairs, and humanitarian development, ultimately establishing itself as an independent centre within the system of international relations.
In his address to the General Debate of the 78th Session of the United Nations General Assembly in September 2023, President of the Kyrgyz Republic Sadyr Japarov identified the strengthening of relations with the countries of Central Asia as a natural and overriding foreign policy priority. He described his vision of Central Asia as “a single geo-economic space in which all forms of economic cooperation and interaction are successfully being strengthened”. He went on to characterise the region as a community of actively cooperating and dynamically developing states united by shared cultural, historical, and traditional values and outlooks.
In this context, it is important to highlight the collective efforts and political will demonstrated by the Central Asian states in resolving longstanding disputes, the most acute of which had for many years been the issue of the disputed sections of the Kyrgyz–Tajik border. The process of border delimitation was finally completed in 2025 with the signing of the Treaty on the Kyrgyz–Tajik State Border. The subsequent agreement between Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan on the tri-junction point of their state borders, together with the Khujand Declaration on Eternal Friendship, should be regarded as a landmark event in the contemporary history of Central Asia. These agreements fundamentally transform the political and psychological atmosphere of the region, creating entirely new conditions for interaction and strengthening mutual trust among the countries.
Not only for Kyrgyzstan, but also for all the countries of the Fergana Valley, the completion of the border settlement process constitutes a foundational factor for the long-term stability of Central Asia as a whole. Without such stability, the implementation of major infrastructure, transport, water, and energy projects would be impossible, let alone the development of new forms of trade and economic cooperation. In particular, the issue of Kyrgyzstan’s transit potential in the context of the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway project is closely linked to regional security and stability, especially in the Fergana Valley—the principal transport and logistics hub of the wider regional space.
At the same time, it must be acknowledged that, from a strategic perspective, several issues remain on which Kyrgyzstan and its regional partners have yet to reach a consensus. Chief among these are the equitable and rational use of the region’s water resources, the climate agenda, and the construction of new hydropower facilities. It is essential to bear in mind that, of the total average annual river runoff generated within Kyrgyzstan—estimated at between 45 and 50 cubic kilometres—the republic itself uses no more than 20–25% for its own needs, while the overwhelming majority of these water resources is supplied free of charge for the irrigation of agricultural land in neighbouring states, which incur no costs for maintaining reservoirs.
The Kyrgyz Republic’s most up-to-date position on water and energy issues was articulated by President Sadyr Japarov during a series of regional meetings in 2026, including the Environmental Summit in Astana and meetings held under the auspices of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea.
Specifically, Kyrgyzstan proposes returning to the former Soviet-era practice of compensation in the form of hydrocarbon supplies from the downstream countries in exchange for services related to water storage and regulated water releases, the maintenance and safety of hydraulic infrastructure, and protection against natural emergencies. In other words, the President of the Kyrgyz Republic has proposed introducing “a mutually beneficial economic compensation mechanism to jointly cover the costs of maintaining the region’s hydro-ecosystem”. As an additional practical measure, Kyrgyzstan advocates strengthening joint efforts among the Central Asian states to attract financing from international climate and environmental funds, as well as establishing in Bishkek a Regional Centre for the Introduction of Energy-Efficient and Resource-Saving Technologies in this field.
It is evident that water and energy relations among the countries of the region have yet to acquire an institutional framework capable of providing effective regulatory mechanisms. For example, the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea remains primarily a political and environmental platform. It addresses the concerns of the downstream countries, yet lacks the mandate to deal with hydropower issues. Attempts to establish a Central Asian Water and Energy Consortium with the participation of the Eurasian Development Bank could, in theory, provide a mechanism for regulating the rational and mutually beneficial use of water resources. In practice, however, such an initiative would require thorough examination from both economic and political perspectives. For the time being, the most encouraging example of cooperation at the practical level is the trilateral Kambar-Ata-1 Hydropower Plant project involving Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. Once completed, the project envisages the joint management of the facility, as well as the shared distribution of electricity and water resources.
Overall, it can be concluded that Kyrgyzstan’s strategy in Central Asia, aimed at building and strengthening good-neighbourly and partnership-based relations with the countries of the region, has proven to be a highly effective course of foreign policy. It enables the country to address issues of regional significance while simultaneously enhancing its standing in both regional and international affairs. A particularly notable example of the success of this policy was the unanimous support of all Central Asian states for the Kyrgyz Republic’s candidacy, culminating in its election as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council for the 2027–2028 term.
The External Horizon of Cooperation
Contemporary Central Asia represents a largely unique geopolitical space in which the countries of the region have thus far managed to reconcile those strategic interests of regional and global actors that do not always coincide and are, at times, directly opposed to one another. In this context, the multi-vector nature of interaction in Central Asia has long remained the defining characteristic of the region. Nevertheless, regardless of whether this is a consequence of the region’s geographical position at the heart of Eurasia, the product of the balance of power among external actors, or the result of the pragmatic policies pursued by the Central Asian states themselves, it has become increasingly apparent that, as international political tensions continue to rise across the Eurasian continent, the region is being pushed, if not towards the adoption of a single strategic orientation, then certainly towards placing serious constraints on some of its existing vectors of cooperation.
By contrast, since 2022 the foreign policies of the United States, the European Union, Japan, and the Republic of Korea have been increasingly dominated by a strategy aimed at weakening Central Asia’s traditional ties with Russia and the People’s Republic of China. Close strategic relations between the countries of the “Five” and these two powers are interpreted as the principal obstacle to the pursuit of their own geopolitical interests in the region. This gives rise to a striking geopolitical paradox: the very principles of multi-vector diplomacy that the West long encouraged as a means of reducing Russian and Chinese influence now operate against the interests of the collective West itself.
But will this multi-vector approach withstand the pressure of sanctions, and what are the limits of Central Asia’s resilience under mounting external pressure? It is evident that without the Eurasian integration framework—the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation—the countries of the region would have only a very narrow margin for manoeuvre. Nevertheless, the question of the Central Asian states’ long-term strategic orientation will become increasingly salient as transport and energy projects involving Western participation begin to move into implementation in the region, for the first time in Central Asia’s modern history.
