Valdai Club

Almost all West Asian states are young and fragile. They are vulnerable because their state institutions are weak and their national identities are underdeveloped. Internal resilience is hampered by the following negative factors: low legitimacy of political regimes, localised identities, the activity of non-state actors, and the lack of sustainable economic growth. Internal vulnerabilities are exacerbated by the impact of negative external factors, such as regional conflicts, foreign intervention, hybrid wars, and global economic shocks, writes Nikolay Surkov specially for the 15th Middle East conference of the Valdai Discussion Club.

One should not expect that the Arab countries that have achieved strategic autonomy will take revenge on the former colonial powers and imperialists. Rather, they will create something similar to a new non-aligned movement (without its formal trappings) and will be inclined to pursue a pragmatic balance and non-interference in confrontations between other global players, writes Nikolay Surkov, senior researcher at the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies, IMEMO RAS, for the 13th Middle East conference of the Valdai Discussion Club.

Despite some lull due to the pandemic, the Middle East continues to change, and new trends are noticeable in the economy, in public life, and in international relations. The Valdai Club Middle East Conference, held in Moscow in February, showed that the region maintains its long-term role as an energy hub and is looking for ways to overcome the crisis legacy of the so-called Arab Spring

It seems that in the Middle East, no “Caesar” will tolerate institutions next to him that can call into question his hegemony in the political sphere, such as a parliament or strong political parties. The experience of most of the Caesarist regimes in the Middle East and North Africa confirms that parliament is assigned only a secondary role as an institution that ensures the formal democratic legitimacy of the leader’s legislative initiatives, writes Valdai Club expert Nikolay Surkov.

There are two acceptable scenarios: either al-Assad resigns before the next presidential election and does not run for presidency or he quits after the election.