On June 3, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “The Fate of the Iranian Nuclear Deal”. According to Anton Bespalov, the discussion moderator, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the Iranian nuclear programme expires this year and further scenarios of developments are extremely important for regional and international security. He added that there have been recent developments in this area, with several rounds of indirect talks between the US and Iran in Muscat and Rome, and the US has recently outlined its view on the parameters of future agreements.
Alexander Maryasov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to Iran (2001–2005), listed a number of reasons that prompted Tehran to resume negotiations with Washington on the nuclear program. Among them, in his opinion, are the aggravation of socio-economic problems in Iran, the emerging consensus in the country on the need to normalize relations with the West for the sake of lifting sanctions, the weakening of pro-Iranian regional groups, primarily Hamas and Hezbollah, the loss of Syria as a strategic partner and the aggravation of relations with Israel to the point of threatening an armed conflict. In turn, the US tactical approaches, according to the diplomat, have also changed. Donald Trump became convinced of the failure of the policy of maximum pressure on Iran. As a result, he stopped raising issues of Iran’s missile programme and the activities of pro-Iranian groups in the Middle East and focused on the need to suspend or stop uranium enrichment. Meanwhile, for the Iranians, this is a red line they cannot cross. This forces the sides to look for compromise solutions to push back the danger of the collapse of negotiations and aggravation of the situation in the region. Maryasov noted that the European countries that are parties to the JCPOA play a destructive role, doing nothing to revive the deal and in fact only supporting the US position.
Alireza Noori, Associate Professor at the Faculty of Economics and Political Science at Shahid Beheshti University (Iran), described the current situation as difficult for Iran and for all parties to the nuclear agreement. This is partly due to the weakness of international mechanisms and international institutions – and the disdain the US has shown for them. On top of that, Washington has shut the other powers out of discussions around Iran’s nuclear programme. As a result, Iran is faced with the fact that the terms of the deal are actually determined by the Americans, and Tehran is left to choose whether or not to agree to them. For Iran, this state of affairs is unacceptable – the Iranians are convinced that international mechanisms should work. Iran considers a balanced agreement to be the best scenario and is therefore ready to accept certain restrictions if its rights are taken into account, including lifting of sanctions and uranium enrichment. The powers of the Global South, such as Russia and China, could help in this regard if they become involved again, revitalize international mechanisms and resist US dictates, Noori said.
