Valdai Club

The US war on Iran is not just a regional crisis; it is also a concentrated display of the restless nature of American hegemony. The United States’ disregard for international law and other countries’ sovereignty, and its abuse of force, will not solve problems; it will only create even greater chaos, Zhao Minghao writes.

The US-led military campaign against Iran, which began on February 28, 2026, has evolved from a series of surgical decapitation strikes into a wide-ranging regional conflict that is reshaping the global order. The war has dealt a dual blow to China’s energy security and its regional partnership network in the Middle East. US strategists view the war as a blow to China’s reliance on what former official Matt Pottinger calls the “axis of chaos” — Russia, Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela — to undermine American interests. Beijing is viewing this war as a test of Washington’s long-term strategic intentions. The US has demonstrated its willingness to use high-intensity force to achieve regime change and control critical resources, signalling that it has not “retrenched” from its global role.

While a fragile two-week ceasefire was brokered by Pakistan, the failure of high-level negotiations in Islamabad has left the region on a knife-edge. Beijing sees this war as a direct assault on its vital interests rather than as a distant crisis. With roughly 53% of China’s crude oil imports originating in the Middle East, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created an existential threat to its economy. Most policy analysts believe Iran poses no imminent threat to the United States. US President Donald Trump’s decision bears a strong personal imprint. It appears partly intended to offset the political fallout from setbacks in his tariff policies, reinforcing his image as a strongman president through military action against Tehran.

This conflict reflects a new strategy for maintaining US hegemony, and the military operation carries strategic considerations aimed at securing interests and containing rivals. The Trump administration’s strategy increasingly emphasises control over global strategic chokepoints and resource hubs. Washington has not abandoned the pursuit of regime change but may be experimenting with lower-cost methods of exerting control over other states.

By weakening Iran, a critical pillar of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the US is directly challenging China’s infrastructure and investment projects, such as the US$4 billion in FDI Beijing holds in Iranian equities. Since the beginning of this year, the Trump administration has used force against Venezuela and Iran, which are widely viewed as partners of China. In particular, both countries play critical roles in Beijing’s efforts to safeguard its energy security.

The conflict has severely weakened the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitoring system. Ironically, the US military strike amid the negotiations in Oman in February may prompt Iran and more countries to accelerate their pursuit of nuclear weapons. China is worried about the collapsing non-proliferation regime, which can exert very negative impacts on the security of its home region. As North Korea expands its nuclear arsenal and calls for nuclear armament grow in South Korea and Japan, China faces a “nuclear forest” on its borders—a long-term security nightmare.

In the meantime, this war against Iran has also exposed the vulnerabilities of both Trump and American hegemony. First, the standoff with Iran is rapidly evolving from an overseas military operation into a polarising domestic crisis. Notably, several prominent figures within the Make America Great Again movement have broken ranks to publicly denounce Trump’s decision to pursue armed conflict. For MAGA supporters, this goes against Trump’s campaign promise not to get involved in overseas wars. US inflation pressures are intensifying, and the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut path may be disrupted. The pressure is also being passed on to American households and ordinary consumers. This has undermined Trump’s plan to bring down oil prices and contain inflation, leaving many Americans dissatisfied. This war will hurt the Republican Party’s performance in this year’s US congressional midterm elections.

Second, the Trump administration’s military preparations were severely inadequate. The operation did not achieve the quick, decisive victory that the White House had anticipated. So far, the United States has already used nearly 1,000 Tomahawk missiles and a large number of interceptor missiles, placing enormous pressure on the US defence industrial supply chain. Backed by missiles stored in underground facilities and thousands of attack drones, Iran has mounted an effective asymmetric counterattack against the United States. Iran’s new leadership has shown the requisite determination to resist the United States. Iran continues its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, citing Israeli strikes in Lebanon as a violation of the ceasefire. In addition, the upgraded use of artificial intelligence technologies and autonomous weapons systems in this war also deserves the utmost vigilance from all parties. The conflict between the US Department of Defense and Anthropic reveals the severe ethical dilemmas facing major powers in military operations.

Third, Washington’s NATO allies are unhappy with the Trump administration’s reckless decision to launch a war, and they worry that turmoil in the Middle East will place even greater pressure on them. Among these US allies, France and Spain have declared that the American war against Iran violates international law. NATO members have not rallied to Washington’s side; even Britain refused at one point to allow US forces to use its military bases. Clearly, these US allies are unwilling to follow America into the quagmire of another Middle East war. Although the Trump administration hopes these NATO allies will provide military support to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, their response has been lukewarm. This conflict is also having adverse effects on Asia-Pacific allies such as South Korea and Japan. More importantly, the Gulf States are dissatisfied with the “collateral damage” this war has caused, and they also question the credibility of US security commitments.

Against this backdrop, Trump’s potential visit to China in mid-May would be especially tricky. He will likely find Chinese leadership that views his military actions as a threat to the “multipolar world” China seeks to build. Over 160 children were killed in a US missile strike on a school in Iran; this and other US-Israeli attacks on civilian facilities underscore the humanitarian catastrophe this war has brought upon innocent people. The US war on Iran is not just a regional crisis; it is also a concentrated display of the restless nature of American hegemony. The United States’ disregard for international law and other countries’ sovereignty, and its abuse of force, will not solve problems; it will only create even greater chaos.