A honeymoon” in cooperation between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan is coming and it is very important not to miss the moment and make the most of the favourable situation to restore and strengthen interstate relations, Sherali Rizoyon writes.
On March 12-13, 2025, Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon paid an official visit to Kyrgyzstan on a state visit, during which Dushanbe and Bishkek put an end to the issue of unresolved state borders. At the moment, the results of this state visit can be designated as the most important event of2025, both for the foreign policy of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and for regional cooperation in Central Asia as a whole.
The Treaty on the State Border signed during the visit can be considered a key document in the 32year-history of diplomatic relations between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which began with the establishment of diplomatic relations (January14, 1993); the others are the Treaty on the Fundamentals of Interstate Relations between the Republic of Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic (July12, 1996) and the Treaty between the Republic of Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic on Good-Neighbourhood and Partnership Relations (May 26, 2004). A package of bilateral documents was signed at a high level between Dushanbe and Bishkek and joint decisions were made that are aimed at eradicating the root causes of border conflicts (delineation of the state border, which solves the following problems: access of the population of border regions to drinking and irrigation water, land, infrastructure, i.e. roads, minerals and the settlement of the issue of illegal detention of residents of border regions) and the creation of conditions for the normalisation of bilateral cooperation. Two checkpoints on the border have already been opened, direct flights between Dushanbe and Bishkek have been resumed, and other checkpoints will be opened in the near future. Flights between Khujand and Bishkek will be established along with bus services between the border regions, which is very important for both countries’ people.
For those who have studied the border issue between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan professionally, a stalemate was visible, and there was a high probability that the conflict would remain frozen, as had been the case for two decades. On the one hand, the stalemate made a “business-as-usual” approach to preserving the issue the most optimal, while on the other hand, the last two bloody conflicts were in 2021 and 2022, which showed that if it is not resolved today, doing so tomorrow will be even more difficult. The border issue limited the foreign policy opportunities of both countries and did not correspond to the existing format of regional cooperation in Central Asia.
In my opinion, the countries really demonstrated political will and used the following three principles to resolve the border issue: 1) compliance with the reached agreements; 2) a willingness to make concessions to each other; and3) recognition and understanding of each other’s national interests. It was the presence of political will and these three principles that paved the way to achieving success. This experience can be used in a modified form to achieve a breakthrough in other areas of cooperation.
In general, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan raised the issue of defining state borders in 1997. They began practical work in 2002 and completed it in March 2025, i.e. it took along 23 years. It should be noted that the leaders and members of the Intergovernmental Commission on the Delimitation and Demarcation of State Borders have done alot of work over the past four years and, according to media reports, actually worked and met on a regular basis, i.e. with short breaks.
According to President Sadyr Japarov, the signed border treaty will be submitted to the Kyrgyz Supreme Council for ratification on March19, 2025. Most likely, on March19, 2025, at the first meeting of the first session of the newly elected lower chamber of the bicameral national parliament of the Republic of Tajikistan, the issue of ratification of the border treaty with Kyrgyzstan will be also considered. Thus, there is a high probability of an exchange of instruments of ratification between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan during the first summit of the Fergana Valley states on March 31, 2025 in Khujand.
It should be noted that the issue of state borders is a highly sensitive topic for all countries and there are always those who are openly and secretly dissatisfied and do not agree with such a decision. It can be called a paradox that the majority of the “dissatisfied” and “dissenters” together support the solution of this issue, since deep down they understand the importance of this step in ensuring security and development for their country and the region as a whole.
Taking into account the fact that the heads of state signed a border agreement, we can say that Dushanbe and Bishkek have managed to resolve a difficult problem that lasted for more than a century, and both countries laid the foundation for opening anew page in interstate relations. If we consider this precedent in a global dimension, it becomes clear that in conditions when the main threads of the settlement of protracted and new conflicts and wars have intertwined and turned into a lever of geopolitical influence, which creates an environment for constant instability – the approach of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to solving the border issue is acquiring strategic importance.
First, it is of fundamental importance for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The most important aspect of the settlement of the issue of state borders between Dushanbe and Bishkek is the fact that they were finalized on a bilateral basis, without the involvement of mediators from third countries or international and intergovernmental organisations. This approach demonstrates the maturity and foresight of the political leadership of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which in the long term, i.e. in the historical dimension, has freed their countries from the burden of “being obligated” to anyone in resolving this issue. In my opinion, it is precisely the bilateral approach that holds the key to the success and ability of Dushanbe and Bishkek to agree on this hypersensitive issue and minimise the use of this factor in influencing both the domestic and foreign policies of their countries.
Second, there is the regional significance and impact of the Central Asian integration processes. The assessment of risks and threats to the countries of Central Asia has internal and external aspects. The issue of the uncertainty ofthe state borders of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan was among the visible threats to regional security. Today, we can state that this challenge is beginning to lose its relevance, both for Dushanbe and Bishkek, and for the Central Asian region as a whole, since the intra-regional process of defining state borders has been completed. Thus, all five Central Asian countries have legally formalised their borders and completed a sensitive stage of their modern history. We can safely assume that the fact of resolving the border issue between Dushanbe and Bishkek will have a favourable impact on the integration processes in Central Asia and will strengthen their potential for regional cooperation. The decrease of the relevance of this challenge opens up new opportunities for the countries of the region to strengthen the role of Central Asia in modern international relations.
Third, there is the impact on future bilateral cooperation between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Today, the settlement of the state border issue has opened the way to the normalisation of interstate relations and in the near future it will have a significant impact on strengthening bilateral cooperation, as well as on the free movement of people and capital. Along with this, one can reflect on the strategic, political, trade and economic, water and energy, transport and transit and cultural and humanitarian significance of resolving this issue, which together strengthen the security potential of both states. Based on these mutually beneficial areas and paths forward, one can predict the future of bilateral relations between Dushanbe and Bishkek. In the near future, it will be possible to initiate the development of an agreement on strategic partnership between Dushanbe and Bishkek and sign this important document during the return state visit of the head of Kyrgyzstan to Tajikistan, which corresponds to long-term and good-neighbourly relations between the countries.
Conclusion
It is obvious that without taking into account and recognising the national interests of the parties and without them having the willingness to make concessions to each other for the sake of the region, it would have been impossible to put an end to the state border issue. Today, relations between Dushanbe and Bishkek are on the rise; in these conditions it is advisable to pay attention to the following issues:
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figuratively speaking, a “honeymoon” in cooperation between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan is coming and it is very important not to miss the moment and make the most of the favourable situation to restore and strengthen interstate relations;
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Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan signed a solid package of bilateral documents and laid the foundation for cooperation in many areas. Now it is important to pay attention to solve all problems and problematic aspects of bilateral cooperation, i.e to follow the principle of “zero problems with a neighbour.”
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unfortunately, in the context of the border conflict, a large amount of negative information content has been created in the media space of both countries. Now it is necessary to restore the positive image of the countries in the media space and in each other’s public opinion.
In general, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have made a big step towards each other, converting the common border from a factor which entails potential conflict into one which encourages sustainable development.
