It is increasingly clear that Central Asia is shaping its own agenda and confidently asserting itself as a consolidated, active, and forward-looking region. In the near future, its strategy is likely to be built on two interconnected pillars: expanding constructive external ties and qualitatively deepening integration processes between the countries of the region, Rashid Alimov writes.
The countries of Central Asia do not seek geopolitical balancing for the sake of balance. Each state operates as an independent actor, clearly articulating, protecting, and pursuing its own interests. Their multi-vector foreign policy is driven by deeply pragmatic goals: strengthening sovereignty, ensuring sustainable economic development, and preventing the major powers from becoming embroiled in confrontation. In this context, the choice of external partners is determined not by ideology, but by a practical willingness to engage in mutually respectful and long-term cooperation.
Amid escalating geopolitical confrontation and global economic turmoil, Central Asia is involving itself more and more in diplomacy as well as foreign economic activity, increasingly presenting a “united front”, including in international forums. The “Central Asia +” format occupies a special place, reflecting both the increased interest in the region and the willingness of states from across the globe to engage in mutually beneficial cooperation. Following the Eastern “ten steps” rule, the five countries of the region are approaching dialogue gradually and with restraint, building equal partnerships.
Economic Expansion Strategy: Central Asia and the Gulf States
A striking example is foreign economic and political cooperation with the Gulf countries, which offers significant potential. Although the institutionalised format of interaction between Central Asia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was launched relatively recently, it has already demonstrated a great deal of effectiveness and sustainable momentum. According to the Eurasian Development Bank, mutual trade between the Gulf countries and Central Asia reached $3.3 billion in 2024 – more than four times the 2020 figure. The United Arab Emirates accounts for approximately 97% of total trade, making it a key partner for Central Asia in the Arab world.
The growth of trade and economic ties is driven not only by the intensified foreign policy strategy of Central Asian countries, aimed at multi-vector cooperation and attracting external capital, but also by the Gulf countries’ sustained interest in expanding their economic presence in Eurasia. The development of transport and logistics infrastructure, including international corridors passing through the region, plays a significant role. According to the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), the trade potential between the two regions is far from exhausted. The untapped volume is estimated at $4.9 billion: $4.4 billion in Gulf countries’ exports to Central Asia, and $500 million in Central Asian exports to the Gulf states.
At the same time, trade cooperation serves as the foundation for deeper economic integration, particularly in the area of investment. Central Asian countries offer attractive investment opportunities in sectors such as energy, agriculture, transport, digital transformation, and industrial cooperation. A favourable investment environment, access to extensive resources and markets, and the political will to deepen ties make the region a promising destination for Middle Eastern capital.
Thus, the partnership between Central Asia and the GCC is becoming increasingly strategic, opening up opportunities for both increased mutual trade and the implementation of large-scale investment projects that promote sustainable development and strengthen economic complementarity between the regions.
Technological Transformation Strategy: Central Asia and the European Union
Cooperation with the European Union is of particular importance for the countries of Central Asia as they attempt to build a balanced, sustainable, and independent development model based on national interests and regional identity. The EU is the region’s third-largest trading partner, with trade turnover totalling approximately $60 billion in 2024. Central Asia views the European Union as one of its largest external markets and a source of high technological and environmental standards, as well as a strategic investor in priority areas: mineral resources, the advanced processing of raw materials, digitalisation, green transformation, and the development of transport and infrastructure.
Deepening cooperation with Europe strengthens the region’s autonomy, expands its foreign economic horizons, and promotes internal modernisation. At the same time, Central Asian countries expect a more pragmatic approach from the European Union, including the de-politicisation of cooperation and the creation of favourable conditions for the influx of European capital, including via a reduction of institutional and regulatory barriers.
These priorities were clearly outlined at the first Central Asia-European Union Summit, which was held in April 2025 in Samarkand. Following the summit, the parties decided to form a strategic partnership and transitioned the summit format to a regular biennial basis. One of the concrete steps will be the opening of a European Investment Bank (EIB) office in Tashkent by the end of 2025, as an institutional mechanism to support direct investment from the EU into the region.
The summit considered a number of initiatives aimed at aligning the economic interests of Central Asia and the European Union. These included the launch of an Investment Platform to promote major regional projects in areas such as green energy, innovation, transport, agro-industry, and sustainable infrastructure. An important decision was the opening of the Central Asia-EU Joint Chamber of Commerce, as well as the proposal to hold a new Economic Forum and an Investor Forum on transport connectivity (the first of these was held in Brussels in January 2024).
Central Asian countries have demonstrated an open stance toward engaging leading European companies in exploration and development projects for strategic raw material deposits, the creation of high-tech industries, and integration into global value chains. A key priority is not simply the export of resources to Europe, but their advanced processing through joint ventures in the region. In this context, Central Asian countries have high hopes for the implementation of the ambitious Global Gateway programme and the development of green energy partnerships, including joint investments in solar, wind, and hydropower projects.
Overall, cooperation with the EU is viewed in Central Asia as an important element in the sustainable transformation of the region’s economy, promoting diversification, the transition to new technologies, increased export competitiveness, and deeper regional integration.
Collective Resilience Strategy: Central Asia and the SCO
In recent years, modern Central Asia has emerged as a politically mature, socially active, and economically significant region, which consistently strengthens its position as an independent actor in international dialogue and global interaction. The region actively participates in institutional formats, particularly the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, where it has served as a reliable and constructive core since its founding in 2001.
It is significant that following the Tianjin SCO Summit, all of the organisation’s key security centres – the Universal Centre for Countering SCO Security Threats, the Centre for Combating Transnational Organised Crime, and the Autonomous Anti-Drug Centre – will be located in the region’s capitals: Tashkent, Bishkek, and Dushanbe. The creation of a powerful “SCO security force” in Central Asia underscores the region’s growing role in shaping a multipolar world and confirms its status as a space of peaceful coexistence and joint development. The experience of recent years has convincingly demonstrated that “the strategic development goals of the SCO and the Central Asian countries complement each other.”
Strategy for Internal Rapprochement: Consultative Meetings in Central Asia
In a complex and rapidly changing international environment, when the stability of traditional global governance formats is declining, Central Asia is demonstrating a healthy balance, diplomatic maturity, and a sustainable course. Regular Consultative Meetings of the Heads of State of Central Asia play a significant role in this, having become a unique platform for synchronising regional priorities and developing common approaches to external challenges.
In just seven years, the Consultative Meetings of the Central Asian leaders have evolved from a symbolic “protocol” to a genuine mechanism for collective leadership. What began as a diplomatic gesture of goodwill has now become a unique platform for building trust, where a strategic vision for the future of the region, which will have a population of 100 million people in ten years, is being shaped based on the Treaty on Friendship, Good-Neighbourhood, and Cooperation for the Development of Central Asia in the 21st Century.
The construction of a new Central Asia, begun in 2018, has led to qualitative changes within the region and its holistic global perception. From Astana in 2018 to Tashkent in 2025, a journey equivalent to an entire era has been passed: during this time, Central Asia has acquired a unified voice in the community of nations, a genuine subjectivity, and a new identity.
The most important achievement is the emergence of a unified political spirit, a shared desire to create a peaceful, sustainable, and internationally respected region, which is increasingly perceived as a coherent, mature, and dynamically developing part of the global space.
This is confirmed by the economic picture of Central Asia, which has been transformed beyond recognition over the past seven years and has acquired a distinctly positive tone: the region’s GDP has approached $450 billion, trade has nearly doubled, and intraregional tourism accounts for 80% of all tourist destinations preferred by citizens of the region.
A Strategy for Unity and Growth: Central Asia at the Crossroads of History
The seventh Consultative Meeting of Central Asian Leaders will be held in Tashkent before the end of 2025. Preparations are in full swing. The first Central Asia-European Union Summit (Samarkand, April 4, 2025) and the second Central Asia-China Summit (Astana, June 17, 2025) have already taken place. The next Central Asia-Russia Summit is scheduled to take place in Dushanbe in October. A Central Asia-USA Summit is also expected. All of these are objective indicators of the increased regional coordination and political agency of Central Asia. It can be assumed that, meeting in Tashkent before the end of the year, the leaders of the “regional five,” drawing on their accumulated experience and deepening mutual understanding, will develop a shared vision and strategic guidelines for strengthening domestic cooperation and advancing external coordination.
It is increasingly clear that Central Asia is shaping its own agenda and confidently asserting itself as a consolidated, active, and forward-looking region. In the near future, its strategy is likely to be built on two interconnected pillars: expanding constructive external ties and qualitatively deepening integration processes between the countries of the region. These processes are like two communicating vessels: strengthening one inevitably feeds and strengthens the other. All indications are that this model – balanced, flexible, and based on mutual interest and support – will serve as the foundation of the region’s strategic course for years to come.
