Like it or not, the world has adapted to the new fault lines and red lines which appeared two years ago. In these conditions, the global alternatives of the year 2024 received their progressive and sustainable development, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Oleg Barabanov.
The first year of the Global Alternatives expert programme of the Valdai Discussion Club has come to an end. In many ways, it continued to develop the theme of the year 2023 programme: “Rules and Values”. Readers can see a brief summary of last year here. One of the key areas of our expert activity, as in previous years, was related to Africa. In July, the Valdai Club held its second Russian-African Conference, in Dar es Salaam with the support of the Russian Embassy in Tanzania and the Russian House in Dar es Salaam. The first Russian-African Conference was held in 2023 in St. Petersburg on the eve of the Russia-Africa Summit. The current forum in Tanzania continued the discussion of topics on the mutual agenda. In recent years, Africa has become one of the highest priority areas for Russia, both in foreign policy and in economics and culture. The main objectives of the conference in the general context of Russian-African relations were highlighted by the Chairman of the Club Andrey Bystritsky, a brief summary of the conference can be found here.
Before the Tanzanian conference, the Club published two expert texts. One is the report prepared by a team from the Andrey Maslov HSE Centre for African Studies, titled “Russia-Africa Cooperation: Outlook and Objectives”. The second is the Valdai Paper “Tanzanian New Ground for Russian Businesses. Prospects for Cooperation in Agriculture”, authored by the Director of the MGIMO Centre for African Studies Mayya Nikolskaya. Then, in the autumn of 2024, the Club published a Valdai Paper prepared by the patriarch of Russian-African studies Vladimir Shubin, titled “Russia – Africa: Overcoming Challenges”. In November, a public presentation of this report took place. The author recalls both the Soviet and modern experience of practical interaction between Russia and the African countries, speaks directly and frankly about their problems, and gives recommendations for their resolution. The Club has constantly addressed the African theme throughout the year. In May, a discussion was held on overcoming the dependence of African countries in the field of information technology. Adu Yao Nicaise analysed the problems of regulating artificial intelligence in African countries, as well as the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States, Ibrahima Diagne analysed the role of traditions and history in the modern development of African countries, as well as the difficulties in forming a new world order based on the opinion of the majority. Konstantin Pantserev presented texts on technological cooperation between Russia and Africa and on the development of information technology in the region, Godwin Gonde Amani presented a view from Tanzania on Russian policy in Africa, Igor Makarov raised the issue of the need to use Russia’s current interest in Africa to systematically strengthen cooperation, and Driss Guerraoui reflected on the need to rethink the paradigm of African development. Texts were also published on the current state of relations between Russia and South Africa after the formation of the first coalition government in the country in many years, and issues of historical memory in Russian-African relations were analysed.
Indonesia became a new geographical area of the Valdai Club activities in 2024. In September, the Club held the first Russian-Indonesian Valdai conference in Jakarta. Its peculiarity was that a detailed analysis of the history of bilateral relations was added to the discussion of contemporary issues on the political agenda. The partners of Valdai Club were the Federal Archival Agency of the Russian Federation, the National Archives of the Republic of Indonesia and the Embassy of Russia in Jakarta. An exhibition of archival documents and photographs on the history of bilateral relations in the 1950s and 1960s and on visits to Indonesia by the leaders of the Soviet Union was timed to coincide with the opening of the conference. One of the topics discussed in Indonesia was devoted to global and regional maritime policy and cooperation between our countries in maritime affairs. On the eve of the conference, the Club published a Valdai Paper by Alexey Kupriyanov, titled “Maritime Geopolitics of the Pacific and Indian Oceans: A View from Moscow”. Also in connection with the conference, Indonesian MP Rike Dia Pitaloka published an article on the history of bilateral relations. The texts of experts from the Indonesian Defence University Hendra Manurung and Yudi Subiantoro on the tasks of maritime cooperation between our countries were also published. Professor Connie Rahakundini Bakri wrote on the military and strategic aspects of bilateral relations, and material was also published on the policy of historical memory between Russia and Indonesia. The Club plans to continue fruitful cooperation with colleagues from Indonesia in the future.
In 2024, Valdai Club continued its cooperation with colleagues from Pakistan, which has been actively developing for several years. In April, 2024, the Club held a Russian-Pakistani conference on strategic stability, a topic that is becoming extremely acute amid the current geopolitical conditions. Pakistan, as a nuclear power, has its own views on the problems of global and regional strategic stability, which resulted in an interesting and frank dialogue between experts from both countries. In November, an official cooperation agreement was signed between the Valdai Club and the Islamabad Policy Research Institute.
In June, in collaboration with the International Manifesto Group, a group of left-progressive and Marxist theorists from Western countries, the Valdai Club organized a special webinar, “The Radical Reorientation of Russia’s Foreign Policy”. The keynote speaker was Sergey Karaganov. Valdai Club experts Radhika Desai and Richard Sakwa also took part in the discussion. Within the same theoretical paradigm, Dimitris Konstantakopoulos analysed the role of Western elites in their attitude toward the Global South. Richard Sakwa reflected on the role of the political West in the erosion of the UN international system.
As before, the Club focused on the activities of BRICS and the Group of Twenty, as well as the value and semantic components of the activities of these associations. The Club held a discussion on the priorities of Russia’s chairmanship of BRICS in 2024. Marco Fernandes presented the text “BRICS and the IMF Debt Traps. What Can the Contingent Reserve Arrangement Do for the Global South?,” dedicated to the hot topic of de-dollarisation and discussions within BRICS on this issue. Daria Zelenova analysed the African agenda of BRICS, Rasigan Maharajh reflected on the future of BRICS countries in a multipolar world, as well as on the development of the BRICS+ format. Materials were published on the history of the formation of the BRICS value platform, on possible directions of BRICS transformation, and on the political positions of possible BRICS candidates based on the results of their votes in the UN General Assembly.
In March, Valdai Club held a discussion “The West against the rest of the world: the role of the G20 in harmonising approaches to global development and promoting sustainable multilateralism”. In this context, a text was published on the advisability of violating the quantitative parity between Western and non-Western countries in the G20, so that the countries of the Global South would receive a numerical majority there. Because without this, the imposition of a Western-centric agenda on the countries of the South within this group will continue. This topic is closely related to the tasks of strengthening trust between the countries of the Global Non-West and the South, and strengthening their internal consolidation.
The climate agenda was also in the focus of the Club’s attention, as before; in January, an expert discussion of the results of the annual conference on combating climate change COP-28 took place. Vyacheslav Shuper analysed the impact of globalisation on the spatial organisation of the world from his point of view as a geographer. Francine Mestrum linked the environmental agenda with the farmers’ protests in Europe.
As part of the Valdai Club programme at the World Youth Festival in Sochi in March, one of the areas of our work was devoted to the values of the future world, as seen by young experts from different countries. Zhang Huimin published a special expert text on this topic. The results of this discussion are presented here.
Another traditional theme of the Club is an appeal to historical memory. Roman Reinhardt reflected on the lessons of the Cold War in connection with the centenary of Jimmy Carter, Milana Živanović in the article “Memory vs. Oblivion” addressed the 25th anniversary of the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999. For the 35th anniversary of the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan, a text was published on the voting pattern in the UN General Assembly on resolutions related to that conflict.
During the year, the Club also responded to pressing issues of the current political agenda. David Lane published articles on the results of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election and on the results of the UK elections. Olivier de Roqueplo analysed the results of the elections in France and the appointment of Michel Barnier as prime minister, and Dario Velo considered the elections to the European Parliament. Nivedita Das Kundu analysed overcoming difficulties in relations between India and China in the context of the bilateral meeting of the leaders of these countries at the BRICS summit, and Murad Sadigzade analysed the problems between Turkey and Syria.
In February, the Club held a discussion on international migration in the Mediterranean and related human rights violations. Dimitris Konstantakopoulos presented an article “Migration in the Mediterranean: Key Problems”, and Roberta Alonzi analysed the migration policy of the Italian government.
In general, one of our authors, Jacques Sapir, titled his article “2024, a Year of Consolidation in Global Changes?” Indeed, the year 2024 has shown that the shocking severity of the collapse of the entire previous world order, characteristic of 2022, is already gradually becoming a thing of the past. Like it or not, the world has adapted to the new fault lines and red lines which appeared two years ago. In these conditions, the global alternatives of the year 2024 received their progressive and sustainable development. The Valdai Club will continue to analyse them in the coming year.
