Valdai Club

2024

Global Alternatives 2024

Oleg Barabanov

Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club; Professor, MGIMO University; Professor, Russian Academy of Sciences

The geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the West, which is very unlikely to end in the coming years, urgently puts the issue of global alternatives on the agenda. First of all, we are talking about the feasibility, sustainability and effectiveness of alternative models of international socio-economic development, the world order and the interaction of value narratives.

Russia is now testing all these models in its own practice. Naturally, the viability of such models in the future will depend on its success or failure.

The key point is to what extent the alternative models will be accepted and supported by other countries outside the Western community, and to what extent the Russian approach (even if its military-political aspect is taken out of the equation) is compatible with their national interests and is in harmony with their aspirations. Russia’s 2024 BRICS presidency is a good opportunity to promote value-based and applied alternatives of the global majority.

Of particular interest are the directions for the further evolution of BRICS, which has already become a symbol of an alternative approach to international affairs. Moreover, it is an attractive symbol, judging by the intention of a number of countries to join BRICS. Noteworthy are the regional trends in the formation of alternative socio-economic and political developments in the countries of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. We should not disregard the alternatives to the neo-liberal mainstream that are being formulated within the West. All these issues will be the focus of the Valdai Discussion Club’s expert programme.

Opinions

Naming the World Minority

What is the best collective name for the so-called ‘Developed World’? It has names for itself; its economists speak of the Advanced or Industrialised nations and its politicians the ‘Free World’ or even the ‘Civilized world’. The rest of us have other names, not all polite: Collective West, Global North, Hegemonists, Globalists, to name but a few. Some, perhaps waking up to the new realities, are starting to speak of the global periphery. This is an interesting inversion, but may be a bit premature.

Security, Emancipation, and Hope: Africa and the Middle East Address Turmoil

The mobilization of the BRICS and African players for a negotiated peace in the Middle East illustrates a transition towards a multipolar international system, in which each region would have more power to manage its own challenges, Akram Kharief writes.

The Tasks of Building Trust Between the Countries of the Global Non-West and the South

The value of trust is key to building productive and mutually beneficial international relations, both bilaterally and multilaterally. Only though mutual trust is it possible to consolidate and unite efforts between states to achieve common goals and defend common interests. This is equally important for both development tasks and for security. Without consolidation, it is difficult to be effective in the modern world.

The Rise of Donald Trump: Another ‘Rejective’ Revolution?

Like the rising populist movements, Trump has benefitted from those who have lost from the move to open foreign markets. Trump, however, does not challenge the American political system. His support remains firmly embedded within it. The total number of votes cast is still highly balanced with only a two percentage difference in the popular vote favouring Trump between the two candidates.

Relations between Russia and South Africa at the Current Stage

The current political situation in the Republic of South Africa is quite an interesting subject for expert analysis. In the general elections held this year, for the first time in many years, the African National Congress (ANC), the ruling party in the country, suffered relative failure, not obtaining an absolute majority in parliament. As a result, it was necessary to form a ruling coalition, officially called the Government of National Unity (GNU).

India-China Relations: Navigating Geopolitical Complexities

India and China, two ancient civilisations with modern geopolitical ambitions, have navigated a complex and often contentious relationship. This relationship is shaped by historical grievances, strategic mistrust, and competing regional ambitions. The dynamics between these two Asian giants can be understood through three key aspects: Cooperation, Competition, and Conflict.

Nivedita Das Kundu

A Historical Perspective of Bilateral Relations between Indonesia and Russia

Indonesia's relations and cooperation with Russia entered a new phase and began to actively develop. This was marked by diplomatic visits by the heads of state and government of both countries, as well as mutual support at international forums.

Rieke Diah Pitaloka

Prospects of Indosesian and Russian Maritime Defence Cooperation

Indonesia, which has tens of thousands of islands and archipelagos, has been known for hundreds of years as a maritime country. Indonesia's geographical position in the tropics, located at the crossroads between two continents (Asia and Australia), and two oceans (Indian and Pacific), certainly has economic potential and presents strategic opportunities related to the development of the marine industry which, if explored, can become a national economic strength.

Hendra Manurung, Yudi Subiantoro

African Agendas in BRICS: Complications and Prospects of Multipolarity

The 2024 expansion of BRICS has undoubtably increased Africa’s weight in international affairs and contributed to the ongoing discussion of the complexities of multipolarity. An increased acceleration of strategic and commercial engagements between BRICS and Africa also reflects the rising pragmatic interest of the major powers in the continent, as well as in China, India, Brazil and Russia.

Prospects for Indonesian Foreign Policy at the Current Stage

On October 20, the newly elected President of Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto, who had previously served as the country's Minister of Defence, will officially take office. Already in the period between the elections and the inauguration, Prabowo has demonstrated a great deal of diplomatic activity. He conducted a series of international visits and meetings, including a visit to Russia this summer, where he had a conversation with Vladimir Putin and a meeting at the Ministry of Defence.

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Reports

Russia-Africa Cooperation: Outlook and Objectives

Russia-Africa relations have become more substantive and regular over the past year, with development strategies, plans, roadmaps and summit meetings, that have become regular despite the challenges and plans for annual Russia-Africa ministerial conferences. The range of the key Russian actors in Africa has changed, the list of Russia’s privileged African partners has been expanded and Russia’s contribution to the sovereignty and development of African countries has become more substantial. A system of Russian-African relations is gradually taking shape from chaos, dissonance and competing initiatives.

Andrey Maslov, Vsevolod Sviridov, Amuhaya C. Ayuma, Valentin Bianki, Anna Bondarenko, Olesya Kalashnik, Nikita Panin, Andrei Shelkovnikov

Valdai Papers

Russia – Africa: Overcoming Challenges

When the BRICS foreign ministers convened in Nizhny Novgorod on 11 and 12 June 2024, it was the first time that three countries – South Africa, Egypt and Ethiopia – represented the African continent. Before that, only South Africa, which has been part of BRICS since 2012, acted in this capacity. This fact alone demonstrates Africa’s growing international role.

Vladimir Shubin

Maritime Geopolitics of the Pacific and Indian Oceans: A View from Moscow

Until recently, Russia’s interests in the Asia-Pacific did not go beyond maintaining a status quo there, with a focus on the principle of ASEAN’s centrality and taking part in ASEAN events. Therefore, expanding political, economic and cultural ties with this association was a priority for Russia.

Alexei Kupriyanov

Tanzanian New Ground for Russian Businesses. Prospects for Cooperation in Agriculture

Modern Tanzania is oriented towards pragmatism. This means keeping an equitable distance from all the ideological camps to maintain mutually beneficial cooperation. This idea is well conveyed in a Swahili saying, Biashara haigomvi, meaning “whoever wants to do business will not quarrel with anyone.” In the new millennium, Dodoma’s quest for funding opportunities has encouraged it to pursue a foreign policy that would be open to exploring a large spectrum of partnerships.

Mayya Nikolskaya