India and China, two ancient civilisations with modern geopolitical ambitions, have navigated a complex and often contentious relationship. This relationship is shaped by historical grievances, strategic mistrust, and competing regional ambitions. The dynamics between these two Asian giants can be understood through three key aspects: Cooperation, Competition, and Conflict.
Cooperation between India and China occurs on global issues and in reforming international institutions, though it is often conditional. For example, China’s opposition to India's bid for a permanent seat at the UN Security Council and its membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group demonstrates the limits of their cooperation. China's support for Pakistan in blocking a UN resolution to declare Mohammad Azhar an international terrorist and its objections to India's revocation of Article 370, which split the erstwhile state of Kashmir and created the Union Territory of Ladakh, further complicate their cooperation.
Competition is inherent in their relationship, as both nations vie for dominance in Asia. They compete for resources, strategic locations, and influence across the region. Issues such as the ongoing border disputes, the status of Tibet, and potential conflicts in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) are flashpoints that could escalate into conflict. The growing ties between India and the United States, the Sino-Pakistan alliance, and water-sharing disputes further intensify this rivalry. China's primary focus is on managing its relationship with the United States, but it also keeps a wary eye on India's growing influence. The strategic alliance of the QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) and the AUKUS pact (Australia-United Kingdom-United States) add to China's concerns, as they could hinder its ambitions to become a developed country by 2035 and a superpower by 2049.
Despite these tensions, China is aware of India's growing economic power and its determination to protect its interests. India’s firm stance during military standoffs in Doklam, Chumar, and Depsang, as well as its reservations about China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), have made Beijing realise that it cannot easily coerce New Delhi. China's realpolitik approach suggests a need for tactical adjustments to maintain a manageable relationship with India while addressing the broader challenge posed by the United States.
Conflict remains a real possibility, especially given China’s assertive stance on the border dispute with India, its involvement in the Kashmir issue, and its position on Tibet. Efforts to resolve these issues, including concerns over water diversion from the Brahmaputra River and the enormous trade imbalance, have so far yielded little progress in improving the relationship. China’s increasing influence in South Asia and in the IOR (Indian Ocean Region) are also drawing India’s neighbours closer to Beijing, complicating India’s regional strategy.
India’s Strategy to Balance China
India’s approach to balancing China is rooted in its ancient philosophy of ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’ (the world is one family). The current Indian government aims to transform India from a balancing power to a leading power by creating a conducive external environment for comprehensive national development, respecting international laws, and pursuing an interest-based multi-vector alignment. Policies like ‘Neighbourhood First,’ ‘Connect Central Asia,’ ‘Go West,’ and ‘Act East’ reflect this strategy.
India views Indo-Pacific cooperation not as a means to contain China, but as a platform to work under international norms for a shared future. The Act East Policy is crucial for India to expand and deepen its relations with South Asian neighbours, Indian Ocean littorals, and Southeast Asia. The speedy implementation of this policy is essential to counterbalance China’s influence in South Asia and the IOR. India is also addressing security and development issues in its northeast, enhancing its engagement with Myanmar, and taking a leadership role in shaping the strategic environment in the region. Projects like the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway are strategically important for India. Additionally, transforming the Andaman and Nicobar Islands into a maritime strategic hub and developing Sabang Port in Indonesia are steps in the right direction.
India’s focus on the blue economy and its role as a net security provider in non-traditional security domains require further strengthening. India has enhanced cooperation on Maritime Domain Awareness, supported littoral states in networking coastal surveillance systems, and entered White Shipping Agreements with various stakeholders. India's contributions to the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) and the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) are widely recognised, offering opportunities to enhance maritime security and develop the blue economy with India in a leadership role.
India is also working on integrating the Delhi-Mumbai-Bengaluru-Chennai industrial corridor with regional initiatives, developing ports under the Sagarmala project, establishing free trade agreements in the IOR, and reviving historical maritime routes. Projects like the "Cotton Route" with Central Asia and "Mausam," a regional initiative to revive ancient maritime routes and cultural linkages, are examples of India’s strategic outreach. To balance China effectively, India must build its strategic capacities, engage in diplomacy, and offer alternate models of growth and development that attract other countries to join partnerships with India.
Conclusion
India and China, as two major Asian powers, must find a way to work together to realise the vision of an Asian Century. A new strategic understanding between these two nations is essential to building peace and prosperity in the region. New Delhi should be firm and clear in communicating its core interests and sensitivities, particularly regarding terrorism, with Beijing. At the same time, India must continue to build its strategic capabilities to secure its borders and reclaim its influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region. While efforts to build strategic trust and complementarities with China should continue, India must ensure it is in a favourable position for the long-term balance of power in the region.
Note:
Inputs taken from the discussions held at the International Scientific & Practical Workshop on “Mapping Pathways for Regional Security, Connectivity and Integration within SCO Countries: Prospects & Challenges”, Tashkent, May 23-24, 2024.
