On September 19, 2016, the Valdai Discussion Club presented a report titled "The Middle East in a Time of Troubles: Traumas of the Past and Challenges of the Future." Opening the presentation, Valdai Club Research Director Fyodor Lukyanov said that the report was based on a discussion at the February 25-26 Valdai conference “The Middle East: From Violence to Security.”
Vitaly Naumkin, President of the Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, noted that the crisis in the Middle East was spreading, as evidenced by the situation in Sudan and the coup attempt in Turkey. He also noted that the balance of power in the region was changing, with the influence of Egypt, Syria and Iraq declining and the positions of Iran, Turkey and Israel growing stronger.
According to Naumkin, an important issue in the US-Russia talks on Syria is dividing the moderate and non-moderate Syrian opposition. He added that it was a difficult task, but the non-moderate opposition can already be singled out, in the case of ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra, recognized by the UN as terrorist organizations. The organizations should be combatted together by Russia, Turkey and the US, Naumkin said, adding that Russia’s role in this has grown thanks to diplomatic successes.
Touching on the causes of the current situation in the Middle East, Irina Zvyagelskaya, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, Institute of Oriental Studies, noted that other than the deep causes for the crisis in each country, there are three that appear to be common for all:
- The states have a tendency toward desecularization. Religious consciousness grows among the population.
- Nation-states are in a crisis as contradictions grow on the sectarian, ethnic and other planes.
- Institutions in the region remain weak and are not trusted by the population, which uses traditional connections to solve problems.
According to Zvyagelskaya, the most efficient way to overcome the crisis, albeit the most difficult one, is to build a common security system. First steps towards creating such a system could include economic cooperation, border protection, solving the problems of water shortage – in other words, looking for areas of common interest.
During the discussion that followed, the panellists were asked if ISIS could be defeated in principle. Naumkin said ISIS could be destroyed in Mosul and Raqqa, but the problem is not the organization itself, which can be replaced by another one. It is the jihadist movement, which constantly recruits both local and citizens of other countries. The scholar believes societies need more cohesion to overcome differences or at least to put them aside, as Russia did on the issue of Kurds or Hezbollah.
Asked how Israel reacts to the developments in the region, Zvyagelskaya said that it pursues the goals of national security. Israel is ready to respond to any threat, no matter what its source is. At the same time, Israel is ready for continuation of Bashar al-Assad’s rule in Syria. Israel has good relations with Russia, and understands Russia’s interests in the Middle East pretty well, even if they are not consistent with its own. Israel trusts Russia, which is reflected in the offer to Russia to be a mediator in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
While discussing the Russian-Iranian ties, Naumkin said Tehran is an important partner for Moscow, but the unexpected withdrawal or the Russian Air Force from its Hamadan airbase points at certain differences. The two countries may have competing interests in Syria, he said.
Naumkin noted that while Iran supports al-Assad personally, Russia struggles for the preservation of legitimacy, not of his rule. He reiterated that each nation should decide the fate of its country.
In conclusion, Lukyanov said that in October the Valdai Club would hold its annual session in Sochi, where the problems of the Middle East will be discussed at a special session.
