Never before have relations between Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan been so close and friendly, Ulugbek Khasanov writes. The article was prepared specially for the 5th Central Asian Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club.
In today’s global processes, most countries are trying to develop a new understanding of their national interests and foreign policy, especially in the context of weakening existing and possibly outdated mechanisms of international relations.
This is dictated by the need to adequately perceive the complexity of current global political trends, taking into account such factors as the historical context, geographical reality and economic viability. A necessary condition for successful foreign and domestic policymaking is a constructive understanding of the country’s role in global and regional systems, which certainly helps to realistically define the goals of national development and consistently achieve them.
Such an approach is certainly relevant for almost all Central Asian countries. The strategic location of the region, combined with its rich natural resources, is associated with intricate geopolitical dynamics, which requires a keen sense of complex and sometimes contradictory trends in their external environment. Establishing cooperation and increasing political trust are of fundamental importance for them as a new model of connectivity, which would ultimately further strengthen their positions in the international arena. Perhaps it was systemic challenges that prompted the countries of the region to outline a common development model in their foreign policy.
Sodyq Safoev, First Deputy Chairman of the Senate of the Oliy Majlis of the Republic of Uzbekistan described these processes as follows: “...starting in 2017, large-scale reforms were initiated in Uzbekistan aimed at reorganising political, economic and social structures and the foundation for a new political vision of the country’s priorities was laid, which led to fundamental changes in the country’s foreign policy strategy, where the main vector was designated as deepening ties with the countries of Central Asia.” Reforms aimed at liberalising the economy and strengthening the role of society have outlined the ambitious goal for the republic to join the group of 50 most developed countries in the world by 2035. The leadership of Uzbekistan has begun to actively demonstrate a new and rather pragmatic understanding of foreign policy at many significant venues and regional and international forums. It has become especially significant in the context of the programme goal of developing a new foreign policy concept, which was emphasised by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev at a meeting of the Legislative Chamber of the Oliy Majlis (Parliament) on November 20, 2024. At that time, the importance of further developing effective and systemic relations with the Central Asian states, as well as with leading countries, influential international and regional organisations and financial institutions within the framework of the implementation of the Uzbekistan Strategy 2030 was outlined.
Uzbekistan Strategy 2030 is, in fact, a national programme aimed at raising the standard of living and income of the population above the world average by 2030. Its main segments are defined as ensuring sustainable economic growth, environmental protection and expanding social projects in the field of education, healthcare and infrastructure to improve the standard of living of citizens.
According to the National Statistics Agency, in 2024 the GDP growth rate of Uzbekistan was 5.6%, while the inflation rate reached 10%. GDP is estimated at $112.65 billion, and per capita annual income is about $2,900. Over the past seven years, the economy of Uzbekistan has doubled and exceeded the historical milestone of $100 billion. The World Bank in particular acknowledged that by 2025, Uzbekistan’s economy will be among the three countries with the fastest economic growth rates in Europe and Central Asia. The poverty rate has decreased from 23% to 11% over the past four years, and by the beginning of this year it had decreased to 9%.
The largest volume of foreign trade turnover was recorded with China (18.9%), Russia (17.6%), Kazakhstan (6.5%), Turkey (4.5%) and the Republic of Korea (3.0%), and in general, the total volume of exports doubled, exceeding $25 billion for the first time. Gold and foreign exchange reserves exceeded $40 billion, and the total volume of foreign direct investment increased six-fold, which made it possible to create 1.5 million high-income jobs.
The share of domestic investment in gross domestic product was 30%. An important fact in the development of the social sphere was the creation of more than 25,000 private kindergartens, as well as about 70 private universities during the post-pandemic period, which led to an increase in pre-school education coverage to 74%, and higher education to 39% of the population.
Between 2005 and 2024, the average inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) amounted to $324.89 million per year, reaching a peak of $941.27 million in the second quarter of 2023. These are clear signs of stable economic growth and an increase in foreign investment, which indicates investor confidence in economic reforms in Uzbekistan.
Efforts to develop neighbourly relations with other states were reflected in real results. Never before have relations between Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan been so close and friendly. The new format of interaction between the leaders of the countries of the region, known as the Consultative Meetings, initiated by Uzbekistan during the Astana Summit on March 15, 2018, laid the foundation for closer cooperation between the countries of Central Asia, and increased the level of trust in solving most of the problems that had accumulated over the previous years.
In confirmation of this, the materials of the 6th Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia, held under the chairmanship of Kazakhstan on August 9, 2024, indicate that “... a landmark event in improving the mechanisms of such interaction was the approval of the Roadmap for the Development of Regional Cooperation until 2027.”
According to experts, the document is aimed at improving intergovernmental coordination, as well as at developing regional cooperation “Central Asia – 2040”.
One reflection of the new realities in the region is the partnerships which are now being set up to address issues which were once considered painful and controversial, namely, projects for the joint implementation of the construction of the Kambarata-1 HPP in Kyrgyzstan, the Rogun HPP in Tajikistan, as well as gas projects in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. For the first time, the states of the region have begun to develop a consolidated water strategy within the framework of the established Water and Energy Consortium of Central Asian countries. The key aspect of the activities of such a structure is the digitalisation of water distribution and accounting, the introduction of space monitoring technologies, and the development of joint scientific research in this extremely important aspect of the regional economy.
Another example is the creation of the Business Council of Central Asian countries, the adoption of the Comprehensive Strategy for the Development of the Transport System of Central Asia, within the framework of which interstate cooperation was agreed on the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, the North-South Corridor, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway.
Separately it is worth noting the relevance of the partnership of the countries of the region in the development of the transport and transit agenda. In particular, the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, scheduled to open this year, promises direct shipping from China to Europe and will strengthen the position of Central Asia in the global supply chain. The project, designed for freight trains to travel 120 km/h, will become one of the key infrastructure facilities within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative. The route is expected to reduce the time for transporting goods between China and Europe by one week and will speed up the transportation of the most popular export goods and products. This project will create new opportunities for connecting with the Eurasian Corridor and integrating into it the transit and transport models of the EAEU, especially the logistics routes of the Far Eastern railway networks of Russia.
Among the priorities for the development of regional logistics, the construction of the Trans-Afghan Railway has been identified as quite promising. As part of joint efforts to assist in the reconstruction of Afghanistan and to overcome the socio-economic crisis in the country, the joint construction of the Termez – Mazar-i-Sharif – Kabul – Peshawar railway with access to the Pakistani trade ports of Qasim and Karachi is becoming a priority. The proposed 650-kilometer route will connect Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan and optimize logistics corridors between Central and South Asia. According to analysts, the start of its implementation is also planned for this year, and completion is scheduled for 2030. Such projects will strengthen trade relations and the economic stability of the region, providing the countries of Central Asia with the shortest access to sea trade ports and international markets.
All these examples indicate a systemic convergence of the approaches of the countries of the region and contribute to their growing importance in modern international politics, an increase in the number of joint infrastructure projects with major players in the world economy. All this emphasises the complex dynamics of the development of political processes in Central Asia. After all, it was the trend towards a common agenda and development strategy that allowed them to ensure the stability of national models in the conditions of geopolitical turbulence in the world.
