As the character of war continues to evolve, so too must Pakistan’s approach to securing its place in the regional and global order. AI, with its transformative power, offers Pakistan a pathway to not only maintain strategic parity with its adversaries but also shape a future where technology serves as a guarantor of stability and sovereignty, writes Javairyah Aatif. The author is a participant of the Valdai – New Generation project.
The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into modern warfare is profoundly transforming global and regional strategic landscapes, fundamentally altering the very character of war. For Pakistan, the adoption of AI technologies is not merely a technological shift but a strategic imperative. It reflects and reshapes its enduring geopolitical realities — its rivalry with India, its pivotal role in the global War on Terror, its complex relationship with Afghanistan, and its aspirations for regional stability. AI is becoming both a tool and a lens through which Pakistan navigates the uncertainties of the 21st-century security environment.
Pakistan’s strategic culture, deeply shaped by its geography and history, emphasizes deterrence, operational efficiency, and asymmetrical strategies. The adoption of AI aligns seamlessly with these principles. Autonomous systems, such as Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs), provide Pakistan with a robust second-strike capability. These technologies are critical for maintaining its posture of minimum credible deterrence — a policy crafted to counterbalance India’s conventional and strategic military advantages. AI’s role in enhancing surveillance and reconnaissance further fortifies this deterrence framework, enabling Pakistan to detect and respond to threats with precision and in real-time.
Operational efficiency, another cornerstone of Pakistan’s military strategy, finds a powerful ally in AI. The region’s history of rapid escalations — from Kargil to Balakot — underscores the importance of timely and informed decision-making. AI-driven systems, capable of processing vast amounts of real-time data, can provide actionable intelligence with unprecedented speed and accuracy. For instance, AI-powered battlefield management tools can analyze complex operational environments, offering commanders insights that could be decisive in preventing conflicts from escalating beyond control.
Historically, Pakistan has leaned on asymmetrical warfare to counterbalance India’s superior conventional forces. AI introduces a new frontier in this domain. Cyber warfare, electronic countermeasures, and autonomous combat systems offer Pakistan tools to disrupt adversaries’ operations in ways that are both cost-effective and strategically potent. These capabilities ensure that Pakistan remains a credible actor in a rapidly evolving military ecosystem dominated by technological prowess.
The regional security calculus cannot be divorced from the intensifying technological competition between Pakistan and India. India’s rapid advancements in AI — propelled by its Defense AI Council, partnerships with global tech giants, and significant public-private collaborations — have shifted the balance of power in the region. Autonomous systems, AI-enhanced command-and-control frameworks, and cyber capabilities are now central to India’s military modernization. For Pakistan, these developments represent both a challenge and a call to action.
Pakistan’s indigenous AI capabilities, exemplified by its Burraq and Shahpar-II drones, signify its determination to counterbalance India’s advancements. These platforms, while still evolving, have demonstrated the potential to contribute to Pakistan’s broader strategic objectives. Moreover, AI’s utility in countering non-traditional threats — such as cross-border terrorism and hybrid warfare — adds another layer to its strategic relevance. Along the Line of Control and the Durand Line, AI-enabled surveillance systems and drones provide critical intelligence to thwart infiltration, smuggling, and other security threats.
Moreover, the evolving role of AI in hybrid warfare has added new dimensions to regional instability. India’s integration of AI into psychological operations, information campaigns, and cyber offensives has widened the spectrum of threats facing Pakistan. For instance, AI-driven disinformation campaigns targeting Pakistan’s political, economic, and military institutions have the potential to erode public trust and fuel internal discord. In response, Pakistan has started incorporating AI tools for countering such threats, particularly through its nascent but growing capabilities in social media intelligence (SOCMINT) and advanced data analytics. These efforts are aimed at protecting Pakistan’s digital sovereignty while ensuring resilience against external manipulation.
The intensifying geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China in the realm of technology has significant implications for Pakistan’s military modernization. China’s meteoric rise in AI, backed by state-led investments and a vast digital infrastructure, offers Pakistan access to cutting-edge technologies through strategic collaborations, particularly under the framework of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This partnership has enabled Pakistan to advance its capabilities in autonomous systems, surveillance technologies, and AI-driven decision-making tools. However, these developments come with strategic dependencies that could constrain Pakistan’s autonomy in a highly polarized technological ecosystem. As the US and its allies increasingly restrict Chinese access to critical technologies through initiatives such as the CHIPS Act, Pakistan risks becoming entangled in a bifurcated tech landscape, limiting its ability to diversify sources of technological imports and expertise.
Moreover, the US-China competition risks creating systemic vulnerabilities for Pakistan. On the one hand, closer ties with China may invite targeted economic and technological sanctions from the United States, particularly in the realms of defense and cybersecurity. On the other hand, reliance on Chinese AI systems could expose Pakistan’s critical military infrastructure to potential external control or vulnerabilities in times of heightened conflict. This rivalry also complicates Pakistan’s efforts to secure advanced technologies from Western sources, given the geopolitical mistrust surrounding its defense partnerships with China. For Pakistan to effectively modernize its military with AI, it must navigate this competitive landscape carefully, with efforts to build indigenous capabilities and maintaining a neutral stance that avoids alienating other key global players in military technology, like Turkey and Russia.
Despite its promise, AI adoption in Pakistan’s defense sector is fraught with challenges. Resource constraints remain a formidable barrier. Developing indigenous AI technologies requires significant investment in research and development, technical education, and infrastructure. Without these, Pakistan risks perpetuating its dependence on imported technologies, undermining its long-term strategic autonomy.
Cybersecurity is another pressing concern. AI systems are inherently vulnerable to adversarial attacks, ranging from data manipulation to system sabotage. Establishing robust cybersecurity frameworks and specialized units to protect AI infrastructure is no longer optional — it is a necessity.
Finally, the ethical and legal dimensions of AI in warfare present profound dilemmas. Autonomous weapons systems, for instance, raise questions about accountability and compliance with international humanitarian law. Pakistan’s advocacy for global regulations on AI in military applications reflects its recognition of these issues. By engaging in international forums, Pakistan not only contributes to the broader discourse on responsible AI use but also safeguards its national security interests against misuse by adversaries.
For Pakistan, the adoption of AI in defense is more than a technological evolution; it is a strategic recalibration. It enhances its deterrence capabilities, operational efficiency, and asymmetrical strategies, aligning with its historical and geopolitical imperatives. As the character of war continues to evolve, so too must Pakistan’s approach to securing its place in the regional and global order. AI, with its transformative power, offers Pakistan a pathway to not only maintain strategic parity with its adversaries but also shape a future where technology serves as a guarantor of stability and sovereignty.
