Valdai Club

Valdai Club experts discussed in Indonesia what Russia could undertake in Asia.

Valdai Club’s regional meeting wa held in Jakarta, Indonesia, on November 26 and 27. Interview with Fyodor Lukyanov, Research Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, on the highlights of the upcoming forum.

This is not the Club’s first meeting outside Russia. There were meetings in Berlin, Singapore, London… Why this time you’ve chosen Jakarta?

For several reasons. First, Indonesia is one of the most rapidly developing countries. It is a very big country with a population of 240 million. It has powerful potential. Under the former authoritarian regime, Indonesia was one of the “Asian tigers.” Now that it is ruled by President Joko Widodo, it has high aspirations as well. Second, Indonesia is the most representative ASEAN member. We are used to thinking in great-power terms, but ASEAN is one of the most successfully developing regional associations in the world. It has a specific integration model of its own. This is totally unlike the EU. Nevertheless, the ASEAN countries are harmonizing their economic relations and are developing quite dynamically. As far as Indonesia is concerned, it has acquired a new stature in the context of the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, a major US economic project in the Asia Pacific Region, aimed at reorganizing the international economic system. Russia went through a lot of trouble in order to join the WTO three years ago. Paradoxically, it became a member just when the WTO was starting to erode. The universal rules of international economic relations are being slowly replaced by regional arrangements conceived by a handful of countries. Indonesia has announced that it is going to join this group. This is why we feel it important to hold the Club’s meeting in the part of the world where a new system is being formed and in a country that will loom large in the new system.

What will be the title of the main report? Do you know its main points?

We aren’t preparing the main report for this meeting. Most likely, we’ll write something on the basis of its results. But there is a topic of much interest for us. It can be formulated like this: What does Asia want? Asia is changing radically. It is turning from a producing region, where millions of low-paid Asians are toiling, into a consuming region. Yes, Asia is emerging as a consumer. This is why it is so important to answer the above question. I mean, what it wants to consume not only in the sense of food and clothing, what it aspires to as it climbs from a still low, if rising, level to the middle level. This refers not only to their economic model but also to certain political ambitions. The Asian region is emerging as a site of most important world processes. So far, the world is focused on the Middle East and this is understandable because of the war, bloodshed, extremism, cruise missiles, and so on. But if we take a step back and shed passing emotions, we’ll see that the fates of the world are being decided in Asia. It is not accidental that the United States is withdrawing from the Middle East and increasingly focusing on the Asian and the Asia Pacific Region, including via new economic mega alliances. Asia, of course, feels the interest towards itself and is conscious of its potential role, but it is still at a loss as to what to do. So, we have a two-pronged task at this forum. First, we must understand what Asia wants. And upon understanding this, second, we should discuss what Russia could undertake in Asia.

To what extent can the Paris terrorist attacks and the terrorist blast on board a Russian plane in Egypt interfere with the Valdai Club agenda in Indonesia?

I dare say, almost to no extent. Of course, Indonesia, too, feels the terrorist threat. Indonesia is a Muslim country and it fears penetration of a radical Islamist ideology. But unlike the Arab East the APR is a rapidly developing area: people here have something to lose, if I may say so. Instability will ruin a lot of things. But, on the other hand, no one is immune to Islamism.

What foreign experts and politicians will attend the forum?

Prince Norodom Sirivudh, founder and chairman of the Board of Directors of the Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace; Kanwal Sibal, India’s former ambassador to Russia and board member of the EastWest Institute; Tan Sri Rastam bin Mohd Isa, Chairman and Chief Executive, Malaysia Institute of Strategic and International Studies; Rahimah Abdulrahim, Executive Director of The Habibie Center, and other representatives of the region.

What Russian politicians and experts will travel to Jakarta?

The Valdai Club meeting is likely to be attended by Deputy Minister of Communications and Mass Media Alexei Volin, Deputy Minister of Economic Development Stanislav Voskresensky, Director of the Center for East Asian and SCO Studies at MGIMO University Alexander Lukin, Director of the ASEAN Center at MGIMO University Viktor Sumsky, Executive Director of the National Committee on BRICS Studies Georgy Toloraya, and others. We’ll represent the Russian point of view prominently.

This interview was originally published in Russian in Rossiyskaya Gazeta.