The world is entering a new space age, driven by technological innovation and defined by growing geopolitical rivalry alongside dreams of vast mineral wealth and future colonization. With plans for a manned space station and missions to the Moon and Mars, China has joined Russia, the United States, and the European Space Agency (ESA) as a “space superpower.” Proclaiming “We must have American dominance in space,” President Trump has directed the Department of Defense to establish a Space Force as an independent branch of the U.S. armed forces.
The idea of a Space Force is not new, and was until recently opposed by Congress, Air Force leaders, and the Pentagon, including Defense Secretary James Mattis. Trump does not have the authority to establish the force, which would require an Act of Congress.
The significance of Trump’s directive derives not from the putative benefits of bureaucratic reorganization, but rather from the context in which it was issued and the broader purpose it is meant to serve. The Pentagon’s National Defense Strategy of 2018 names Russia and China as “strategic competitors” and identifies both cyberspace and space as “warfighting domains.”
Control of space is viewed as essential by U.S. strategic planners, who seek “full spectrum dominance” but must contend with civilian aversion to casualties. U.S. military operations, including surveillance and attack drones, depend on satellites for 80% of their communications. “Without satellites you go back to World War II, to industrial warfare.” Satellite communication is also central to nuclear deterrence.
The militarization of space developed gradually during the Cold War but was greatly accelerated in the early 1980s as a result of Ronald Reagan’s “Strategic Defense Initiative.” As U.S. Space Commander in Chief Joseph Ashy declared in 1996, “We’re going to fight in space. We’re going to fight from space, and we’re going to fight into space.” Militarization was given further impetus by the U.S. unilateral withdrawal from the ABM Treaty in 2002.
The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 to which 123 nations including the USA, Russia, and China are signatories governs extraterrestrial exploration and settlement. Article II states that “Outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by another other means.” The Treaty explicitly prohibits nuclear weapons in space, and declares that space is a global commons to be used for peaceful purposes. However, it does not explicitly ban military forces in space. Yet, war on earth will inevitably spill over into space, with devastating effects not only for the combatant populations, but for the entire planet.
In 1985 the U.N. Conference on Disarmament called for a Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS) treaty which would prohibit not only nuclear weapons, but also the use of any other type of weapon in space. The treaty has received virtually universal support, including from Russia and China. However, the United States refused to support it, arguing that there are presently no weapons in space, and negotiations have been suspended.
During the Cold War a situation of relatively stable deterrence rested on the mutual understanding that an attack on specific satellites connected to nuclear command and control systems constituted a de facto nuclear attack. At the present time, however, the situation is far more complex and dangerous. The number of satellites is projected to increase from 1500 to tens of thousands in the coming years and most space technologies, including satellites, can be deployed for both commercial and offensive military purposes. The risk of accidental damage to satellites has increased exponentially, magnifying uncertainty and fear. China’s attack on one of its own satellites in 2007 was widely interpreted as a warning to the United States, which apparently followed suit a year later by destroying one of its own defunct satellites. In its February, 2018 “worldwide threat assessment” the U.S. Intelligence Community claims that Russia and China will deploy anti-satellite weapons “in the next few years.” Non-state actors also have the capability to deploy cyber weapons against ground stations that transmit satellite data.
Ironically, the militarization of space is developing alongside significant international cooperation. Since the 1970s, extensive U.S.-Soviet and then U.S.-Russian collaboration has taken place, recently and most notably in the operation of the International Space Station (ISS). Notwithstanding sanctions, the United States continues to rely on Russia to send its astronauts and supplies to the ISS, on which Roscosmos now plans to build a luxury hotel for wealthy tourists. Although the long-term fate of the ISS is unclear, the U.S-Russia partnership is expected to continue with the establishment of the Deep Space Gateway, a new space station in lunar orbit that will support human missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond.
