With the Ukrainian crisis, for the first time in 25 years the NATO has been confronted with the question – what are the security guarantees for its members worth? The foremost anxiety for Brussels is the threat of Russian ‘hybrid aggression’ – as a result of the Russian military reforms – that scares East European members of the Alliance. Recent large-scale drill at the Russian borders are to show Moscow that allies are on the alert.
The West astonishment is caused mostly by how Russia acted in Crimea and, as some think, is acting in Donbass – but not by the motives of Russian policies. Ones, who are seizing the initiative within NATO at the moment, are those who call for war – not talks – with Russia. The paradox of soldiers fighting with no identifying signs or under no flag has compelled them completely.
The Baltic states are the ones who have been “crying wolves” most of all. Their concerns reached Washington, which hastened to assure its allies that for NATO “defense of Tallin, Riga and Vilnius is as important as defense of Paris, Berlin or London”. To strengthen the confidence within the Alliance in the necessity to protect its new members President Barack Obama visited Estonia in September 2014 to state that: “Undoubtedly, the Baltic states have made our Alliance stronger”.
NATO’s special concern is the information war that they believe Russia is skillfully waging. Former NATO Allied Commander in Europe Philip Breedlove noted: “This is the most amazing blitzkrieg in the history of information wars”. In Poland former chief of the National Security Bureau Stanisław Koziej was convinced that Poland had undoubtedly become a victim of the Russian information aggression that consists of “TV-programs, radio broadcasting and comments by Internet-trolls, which are coordinated from one common center”. In order to cut the sedition and the efforts of Russian trolls to influence NATO states information space the summit of the Alliance held in 2014 in Lithuania decided to create the Strategic Communications Center.
Each of the East European countries in their own way are striving to demonstrate their usefulness within NATO and that they deserve their security guarantees. Some do it in an especially belligerent manner – like Latvia and Lithuania, who promised to support the US in bombing Syria. However, when it came to defending their own borders Vilnius and Riga decided to shift the burden onto their NATO allies. Unlike Lithuania, Poland has decided to resist a potential aggressor under arms. The Polish government has declared a 33-billion USD Armed Forces Modernization Plan, and is planning a large-scale national military exercises.
Meanwhile, the US is playing the main role in confronting invisible men in green in the Baltics and Eastern Europe. With the developments in Crimea in progress Washington organized the off-schedule military exercises Operation Atlantic Resolve, and has held a number of activities in the NATO states bordering Russia since then. Most important for Europe were the NATO recent naval exercises in the Black Sea and the 1800-km passage of the American dragoon battalion after their drilling in the Baltics to their permanent post in Germany through Estonian, Latvian, Lithuanian, Polish and Czech territories.
Demonstration of power of this ilk are addressed to Russia, as well as the belligerent Balts and Poles to tame their ardour. Washington is cautious about excessive initiative of the smaller states in the conflict with Moscow. For instance, they may launch unauthorized arms and military instructor supplies to Ukraine, which will lead to a new round of war. The US believes in the necessity to talk to Russia, although it is to be done from a position of strength. Outgoing Deputy Secretary-General of NATO Alexander Vershbow pointed out: “we have to be adults in relations with Russia and we have to continue stressing that its behavior is provocative and dangerous”.
The new norm of Russia-NATO relations is uncertainty. It is not yet a Cold War, but it is not peace and good neighborliness either. In response to NATO military exercises Moscow holds its own maneuvers signaling that pressure is useless. The sides interpret each other’s actions as aggressive moves and it is vital to avoid misinterpretations of the situation. The key question for Russia is whether the Operation Atlantic Resolve will become the start of permanent stationing of American and NATO forces in the countries of former Warsaw Pact and the post-Soviet space. Moscow insists that its security needs to be considered, whereas the American leadership believes that the motives of Russia stem from “misinterpretations and outdated thinking”. For the sake of peace in Europe, it would be more productive if the US, when dealing with Russia, used the formula they have adopted in the National Security Strategy towards China: “seeking ways to reduce the risk of misunderstanding or miscalculation”.
