On April 15, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “The Radicalisation of European Society as a Response to Global Challenges”. Anton Bespalov, the moderator of the discussion, noted that in the countries of not only the Global South, but also the Global North, the question of what Europe really wants regularly arises. What is the reason for the irreconcilable position of European elites at the national and supranational levels on the Ukrainian crisis, which is becoming increasingly radical against the backdrop of the crisis in the European economy and the weakening of transatlantic ties? Could it be that there is no “mysterious European soul”, and remilitarisation is only a way to overcome the crisis and increase social cohesion?
“Just recently, Europe celebrated the ‘end of history’ and claimed the laurels of a world symbol of economic prosperity, humanism and democracy,” said Vladislav Maslennikov, Director of the Department of European Problems at the Russian Foreign Ministry. – Today, even the most convinced Eurocentrists recognise the critical processes in the European community and the existence of systemic internal socio-economic problems.” Moreover, these problems are largely caused by the European Union’s move to curtail trade and economic relations with Russia. The policy of sanctions pressure and refusal to make use of Russian energy resources and other goods has hit the European economy, contributing to the deindustrialisation of Europe. Critical phenomena in the economy have led to an exacerbation of social contradictions. Voters are increasingly dissatisfied with the fact that the geopolitical tasks formulated in Brussels are being implemented at their expense and to the detriment of their interests. However, instead of an open political dialogue, these problems are being hushed up. Against this background, manifestations of intolerance are growing in the EU member states. At the same time, the radicalisation of Europe has also been affected by developments in the international arena, particularly the conflict in Ukraine, which is perceived by many among the EU elites as existential. Europeans are afraid of appearing weak to the Global South, which is pushing them into tough positions. In addition, this helps shift the focus of attention away from domestic socio-economic problems. The concept of an “enemy at the gates”, which is declared to be Russia, is widely used to cement disintegrating European unity and maintain bloc discipline. Ideologization and radicalisation are growing in the EU, which is reflected both in domestic politics and in foreign policy. The EU is turning from an economic integration project into an actively militarising association. “It would clearly be premature to count on a quick change of the Brussels collective paradigm,” the diplomat concluded.
Anatol Lieven, Senior Researcher at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Public Administration (United Kingdom), pointed out the deep gap between the rhetoric of European elites and their plans. Statements about a “state of war with Russia” have become commonplace, but at the same time, society is clearly not ready for collective sacrifices. If peace in Ukraine can be achieved, a significant part of this radical impulse will disappear. The Ukraine conflict has significantly increased the influence of certain Eastern European countries that are negatively disposed towards Russia. This has led to an increase in the power of Brussels and has greatly increased the influence of the Western European military and their allies. The idea of reindustrialising Europe through defence spending has come to the fore. This is linked to domestic political dynamics. Traditional European centrist elites are under enormous pressure from radical movements, and this trend will only intensify under the influence of inevitable further deindustrialisation. The elites are fighting the threat of populism by fanning fears of a Russian threat and moving towards a de facto nationalist logic that promotes authoritarian tendencies. The strategy of the current Western European elite will be based on attempts to unite the population using a military spending programme, mobilisation and the fight against the opposition put forward by Russian agents. Thus, the tectonic shift in European politics, although partly caused by the conflict in Ukraine, is primarily generated by changes in the economy. Ultimately, according to Lieven, some kind of compromise with Russia will be inevitable.
Alexander Kamkin, Senior Researcher at the Sector for Analysis of Political Change and Identity at the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations outlined the situation in Germany. He identified the following key trends: remilitarisation, both material and mental, the search for a proper place in the foreign policy sphere, the adoption of a new migration picture, and the “Russian question”, which has become the main one in political discourse. Speaking about the radicalisation of political consciousness, Kamkin noted that in the 1990s and 2000s, the German far-right changed its image of the enemy. If before the enemies were the countries of the Soviet bloc, now it is migration from the Islamic world, and with the advent of Trump, who is trying to put together an alliance of the European right around his doctrine, anti-Americanism in this environment has declined. As a result, according to Kamkin, a paradox has emerged in German politics: the most radical Russophobes and militarists are now not Alternative for Germany, but parties that were previously considered pacifist and moderate. At present, the course towards radicalisation and the remilitarisation of consciousness is actually being pursued by the ruling coalition. As for the German right, the “Russian question” has become secondary for them compared to migration, the decline of industrial production and social problems.
