On January 18, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion on the results of Russia’s chairmanship of the Arctic Council in 2021–2023. Timofei Bordachev, the discussion moderator, emphasized that the issue of development of the Arctic region and Russia’s policy there is now of fundamental importance, since Russia has unique geographical opportunities to study and use the natural, transport and logistics resources of the Arctic.
Anastasia Likhacheva, Dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Politics, Higher School of Economics, believes that Russia should build relations with foreign partners as the main Arctic power in the world. “We used to be embarrassed to talk about it. There was the principle that all players are equal and there are exclusively common interests in the Arctic,” she added. This approach was partly justified from an environmental point of view, but we must not forget that Russia still accounts for the majority of the Arctic population, resources and even coastline, and that climate change is occurring faster in the Russian Arctic than in other parts of the region. The depth of strategic planning and development of the Arctic region in Russia is much deeper than that of other Arctic and non-Arctic states, Likhacheva noted. This does not negate possible interaction with other countries. Moreover, the basis of Russia’s state policy in the Arctic, in addition to ensuring security, provides for reliance on international cooperation in matters of economic development. However, the Arctic has now become a region of fierce international competition, and the illusions associated with the ultra-consensual approach of the Arctic Council over the past two years have been greatly devalued.
Glenn Diesen, Professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway, pointed out that the Arctic Council, of course, should remain in the new conditions, but its role should change. It was not intended to resolve geopolitical issues or to interact with the non-Arctic countries that are increasingly present in the region. In his opinion, the development of the Arctic in the future will be associated with a reorientation of Russian policy – a departure from the idea of Greater Europe in favor of Greater Eurasia and a turn to the East as a whole. The Arctic, ceasing to be a frozen desert, is turning into a region of geostrategic tension, Diesen believes. This is due to the race for resources and control over transport routes. Against this background, Russia’s interests will lie in both finding new partners for the development of the Arctic and incentives to establish cooperation with the West in the future. The Eurasian approach to the Arctic, perhaps with the involvement of the BRICS, can resolve both of these issues, the expert believes.
Vladimir Panov, Special Representative of the Rosatom State Corporation on Arctic Development Issues, outlined the situation around the “indicator of Arctic development” – the Northern Sea Route. Panov said that in 2023 a record was set for the volume of cargo and transit traffic. He indicated that there is great interest in redirecting cargo from the Suez Canal to the Northern Sea Route. This is also related to issues of ensuring the sustainability and safety of navigation. Speaking about the state of affairs in the Arctic as a whole, Panov emphasized that Russia is ahead of many countries in the field of Arctic projects for objective reasons. The geopolitical factors influence this process, but not fundamentally, because such projects have their own cycle, largely related to the emergence of new technological solutions.
