Valdai Club

Last autumn, President Putin outlined Russia’s six tenets of international relations. These can be summarised as developing an interconnected world that accommodates civilizational diversity, equal representation, and a balance of interest. The tenets represent a repudiation of the post-Cold War liberal hegemonic order based on alliances and universalism, in which the dominant state sets the framework and conditions for development.

Reason and individualism are important components of civilisational development, although they are not the only components. The key focus for discussions about the development of civilisation should therefore be the limits of reason. Is the pre-modern heavy luggage slowing down development, or is it the foundational building block of civilisation as the primordial instincts of human nature cannot be transcended?

It is now evident that the unipolar moment has come to an end. After exhausting itself in failed forever wars against weak adversaries, the US military prepares for war against Russia, China, and a regional war in the Middle East, Glenn Diesen writes.

The great economic realignment is increasingly organised with non-Western technologies, ships, insurances, investment banks and currencies. As the economic infrastructure is de-Americanised and transformed, it is reasonable to expect the institutional framework to change. This will also occur in the Arctic, Glenn Diesen writes.

Isolating Russia to destroy its economy, financial system, and currency failed as the world is no longer Western-centric. Economic sanctions united US adversaries such as Russia, China and Iran, while non-aligned states and partners such as India, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia have diversified their economic connectivity to reduce dependence on the West, writes Valdai Club expert Glenn Diesen.

The unipolar order has already collapsed as evident by the weaponization of economic dependencies and declining trust in the freedom of navigation. Eurasian transportation networks are not only creating more cost and time efficient transportation corridors, they are also reviving reliable connectivity in a multipolar format. Gradually, the Eurasian land powers are displacing the competitive advantage of the oceanic powers, writes Valdai Club expert Glenn Diesen.

International institutions in Eurasia were previously tasked with diversifying economic connectivity as the multipolar world demanded reduced dependence on Western-centric institutions reluctant to adapt to new realities. However, the European crisis has destabilised the world and discredited the West’s ability to facilitate economic cooperation.

The concentration of economic power in digital giants is occurring at a time when globalisation is fracturing due to competing industrial policies and protectionism. This seemingly paradoxical development is caused by two transformative events in the global economy – the world is entering the fourth industrial revolution at a time when economic hegemony has come to an end, writes Valdai Club expert Glenn Diesen.

As the relative power of the West steadily declines, the role of liberalism in domestic and international politics recedes. After the Cold War, the “end of history” thesis was largely internalised and expressed with the assumption that the entire world would unify under liberal principles, which would be enforced under the benign leadership of the US. As the international distribution of power shifts, Western states have increasingly expressed their concerns about the decline of the so-called “liberal international order”, writes Glenn Diesen, Professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway, and participant at the 18th Annual meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club.

The fall of Kabul will have profound implications for Central Asia and wider Eurasia — presenting both risks and opportunities. The risks associated with the Taliban in control of Afghanistan can be construed as an opportunity to test and advance the Greater Eurasian Partnership, writes Valdai Club expert Glenn Diesen.