The Arab Spring: A Result of External Influence or Part of a Global Process?
Valdai Club Conference Hall (42, Bolshaya Tatarskaya, Moscow)
List of speakers

On February 10, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “The Arab Spring 10 Years On: What Will Summer Look Like?”

Vitaly Naumkin, Academic Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, suggested that the “Arab Spring” should be considered part of a global transformation process that began in the Middle East, because this region was most ready for changes, and it’s too early to talk about the final results. Two characteristic features of this transformation were its political energy that spilled onto the streets and into the masses, and the growing importance of the role of the information component in such upheavals, in connection with the spread of the Internet. “Perhaps the Arab Spring has achieved little in these ten years, but it has shaken the region,” he added.

Alexey Skosyrev, Deputy Director of the Middle East and North Africa Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, called the preliminary results of the “Arab Spring” after ten years disappointing. It shattered the regional security system, gave rise to many armed conflicts, as well as socio-economic and humanitarian problems, and led to an increase in the number of refugees, as well as to an increase in the traffic of drugs and weapons. All this has turned the region into one of the “painful areas of the globe”, he said.

The “Arab Spring” was largely provoked by forces external to the Arab world — Iran, Turkey and Israel, which gained great influence in the Arab world during it, said Amr Musa, Secretary General of the Arab League in 2001-2011. According to him, the process will affect these countries as well, so that “they will have their own spring”. The consequences of the Arab Spring, in his opinion, have not yet fully manifested themselves.

The Arab Spring 10 Years On: What Will Summer Look Like?
10.02.2021


Randa Slim, Director of the Track II Dialogues initiative at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, highlighted two waves of protests in the framework of the Arab Spring. Both had their roots in social problems, but the first wave — revolutions in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Libya and Syria — was more ideological, with more Islamic parties taking part in it. The second wave, the Arab Spring 2.0, which swept Sudan, Algeria, Iraq and Lebanon, is characterised by a greater focus on fighting the government system, rather than specific individuals, and a smaller role for external players, particularly the West.

Hrair Balyan, Director of the Carter Center’s Conflict Resolution Program, analysed the dynamics of the social conflict reflected in the Arab Spring movements. In his opinion, the region needs a new social contract that would reduce socio-economic inequality. Otherwise, the risk of new uprisings will remain. At the same time, neither revolutions themselves, nor external pressure provide the required effect.

During the discussion, the situation in individual countries was also discussed. A view from Syria was provided by the Syrian political and public figure Ali al-Ahmed, who pointed out that in order to prevent the “Arab Spring” from repeating in a few years, it is necessary to pay special attention to social problems, including poverty and migration, as well as to combat corruption. The Lebanese situation was described by the adviser to the President of Lebanon Amal Abu Zeid, and the process in Tunisia explained by Youseff Cherif, Head of the Tunisian Branch of the Columbia Global Centers.