Valdai Club

Political, security and identity reasons are the motives underlying the collective West’s policy of regime change. The Western powers, led by the USA, through NATO, seek to diminish the power of challengers. They seek to assert the collective West’s political identity and economic interests by keeping rising states in a subordinate position, David Lane writes.

Like the rising populist movements, Trump has benefitted from those who have lost from the move to open foreign markets. Trump, however, does not challenge the American political system. His support remains firmly embedded within it. The total number of votes cast is still highly balanced with only a two percentage difference in the popular vote favouring Trump between the two candidates.

Following fourteen years of Conservative rule, Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party crashed in the General Election of 4 July 2024. The Conservatives won only 121 seats out of a total of 650 – 250 seats fewer than in the current Parliament – the lowest in more than 200 years of Conservative Party history. The Labour Party won an unprecedented 411 seats. The result has euphorically been welcomed as an ‘historic victory’ for revived social-democracy and a divergent path from right wing ‘populist’ politics in Europe. A closer study of the election results, however, shows that such an interpretation is seriously misplaced.

The UK may have a change of political leadership under Labour but there will be no significant shift in political direction, David Lane writes.

C. Wright Mills exposed the political leadership of the USA in the 1950s as a ‘power elite’. The pillars of political power were constituted by the military (the ‘warlords’), capitalists (the ‘corporate rich’ and ‘chief executives’) and the Washington DC political establishment (‘the political directorate’).  These elites formed a unitary ‘power elite’ sharing interdependent  political, economic institutions and a common ideology.  

The implications for the future of the European Union will also depend on how successful the UK becomes as an independent actor. If the new UK government under Johnson can introduce positive policies promoting evenly spread economic welfare, then this will unquestionably energise the populist Euro-sceptic movement in Europe.

The EU will be significantly weakened by the exit of the UK. Brexit entails the rejection of what the EU stands for: the four freedoms ensuring the unrestricted mobility of capital, labour, services and goods plus the rights of ‘establishment’; the centralised EU administrative power over the member states; the demands for even greater and deeper union.

Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour policies are essentially social-democratic and the proposals are likely to further positive investment in the British economy and to benefit some social groups – particularly students and people needing care. None of these proposals, however, is a threat to the dominant classes who seem to be erecting a bogey-man against whom they can oppose themselves.

If the vote of no confidence in the Johnson government fails, then it is likely that Boris Johnson and the Parliamentary leadership will call an election but only after the exit of the UK from the EU. The Johnson campaign will adopt the strategy of pinning the Conservative Party to a ‘People versus Politicians’ platform.

Assuming that a Britain leaves on 31 October with no further Withdrawal Agreement, Boris Johnson should keep his nerve and hold on, writes David Lane, Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences (UK) and Emeritus Fellow of Emmanuel College, Cambridge University. The short term will have drawbacks but will not be catastrophic. Most things will continue as at present. In the long term there will probably be economic and political benefits.