For nearly a decade and a half now, the word “transformation” has arguably been the most popular term to describe the Middle Eastern developments, including transformation of societies and economies, political systems and institutions, foreign policies and international alliances, strategies pursued by non-state and state actors, and regional and global powers. In a word, transformation of everything in the whole wide world. Presumably, this is enough time to at least begin to see the general outlines of a new regional order. However, each year something happens that compels analysts to start their reflections anew with the timeless acknowledgment of uncertainty of the current situation.
It is striking that, despite the eventful nature of recent years, prevailing political narratives in the region have been enviably consistent. In most cases, we witnessed the same interpretations of liberal, conservative, Islamist, or nationalist realities. Each of them offered its own explanation of global, regional, and national events, postulated its own set of values that shape responses to change, and suggested specific strategies for political behaviour. Each such narrative also had its own set of supporters and antagonists, whose competition determined the alignment of socio-political forces in specific contexts.
For instance, after a brief period of enthusiasm in 2011, the liberal camp yielded to Islamists, whose triumph was also short-lived. Conservative and nationalist forces then emerged, seemingly reflecting a global trend of the past decade. However, the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has reopened the door for Islamists to re-enter the political scene. All of the above creates a sense of perpetual déjà vu. Years pass, generations of leaders change, the world around them transforms, revolutions give way to stagnation, yet the agenda remains the same: endless unsolvable conflicts, debates over the same social development challenges, and attempts to reconcile the dichotomies of civilisational choices.
At the systemic level, the region faces two key goals which are to break free from the vicious cycle of entrenched interpretations of reality and to restore balance between formal and informal institutions, thereby strengthening statehood.
