Domestic political developments in the United States, including the outcome of congressional and FBI investigations against Donald Trump, will be the main factor shaping US foreign policy. And this spells trouble ahead for Russian-American relations.
On April 19, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Washington, DC) hosted a closed-door discussion on the prospects for Russian-American cooperation. Valdai Club Program Director Dmitry Suslov presented the main points of the Valdai Club’s report, “Russian-US Relations under the Trump Administration: Opportunities and Constraints”, which he is preparing jointly with Senior Fellow and Director of the Hudson Institute’s Center for Political-Military Analysis Richard Weitz.
Since Donald Trump’s inauguration, Russian assessments of the prospects for relations with the US have been downgraded considerably, Suslov said. This is the consequence of political processes inside the US and the related adjustments in the new administration’s foreign policy.
According to Suslov, Trump’s initial “America first” rhetoric was interpreted by many Russian analysts as a “commitment to follow US national interests in a narrow, egoistic sense rather than consolidate and expand America’s hegemony and global leadership.” The Trump administration’s wish to strip US foreign policy of its ideological biases, renounce the systematic policy of regime change and downplay the importance of promoting democracy and human rights inspired much hope as well. This prepared the ground for weakening a number of the core contradictions between Russia and the United States over their different approaches to the international order. Moscow expected that the new administration would make Kiev live up to its end of the Minsk agreements thereby diffusing the greatest source of Russia-US conflict and creating opportunities for a partial lifting of anti-Russian sanctions. Another hope was for cooperation in the fight against international terrorism in Syria and beyond.
But, as Suslov said, Russian hopes were dashed by subsequent developments in the US – primarily the unprecedented attacks on Trump by Democrats and the political elite as a whole, the use of the Russian card to weaken and delegitimize the president and the fact that the Republican establishment and the most hawkish elements of the US military elite have rather rapidly reasserted their control over US foreign and defense policy. Russia is also concerned over certain features in Trump’s foreign policy approach, including his philosophical commitment to a policy of unilateralism, disregard for international law and institutions, and the propensity to approach international relations in terms of power, for example by opening dialogue with other nations by bullying. These intrinsic characteristics of the new American administration were on full display in the US missile attack on Syria in early April.
According to Suslov, the altered balance of positive and negative factors in the Trump administration’s foreign policy, on the one hand, mitigates one of the main contradictions in Russian-US relations – Washington’s policy of regime change and democracy promotion. This policy has not changed over the last three months. On the other hand, the chances of settling the Ukrainian crisis are still slim, while on Syria relations have deteriorated even to a greater extent. Suslov believes that Russian-American relations will continue to be confrontational for the foreseeable future.
He believes that the US lacks both a foreign policy strategy as a whole and a cohesive strategy with regard to Russia. The current US leaders do not know what kind of relations with Russia they need and what place they would like to reserve for Moscow in the US foreign policy strategy. These factors also place a constraint on efforts to establish cooperation between the two countries.
Finally, Suslov warned that there was a risk of an increased escalation in Russia-US relations (primarily in Syria) in the event of new provocations involving the use of chemical weapons and Washington’s continued pressure on Moscow concerning Bashar al-Assad’s departure. Trump’s inclination to view everything in terms of power and make decisions on the basis of what is more beneficial for his political standing and “strong leader” image could lead to a situation where developments spiral out of control, despite what Suslov called the clear reluctance of the Trump administration to get embroiled in new military conflicts.
He identified maintaining and reinforcing control over the confrontational relationship as the main short-term priority for Russia and the United States. First and foremost, this implies that the two countries should resume normal dialogue and adopt stronger transparency and confidence-building measures in the military sphere. The second priority, according to Suslov, is to establish limited cooperation in a step-by-step manner, preferably in a multilateral format and without excessive publicity. Cooperation is needed where it is in both countries’ core national interests without preliminary concessions either from Moscow or from Washington.
The discussion involved a number of prominent US experts, and was hosted by senior adviser and director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at CSIS Olga Oliker and deputy director and senior fellow and deputy director of the CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program Jeffrey Mankoff. All of them agreed that the Trump administration’s foreign policy remains unpredictable and unstable.
The American experts did not rule it out that the United States, if faced with a challenge comparable to 9/11 or the Arab Spring, would revert to a strongly ideological and neoconservative foreign policy. They also noted that the new administration’s foreign policy was unpredictable and lacked internal coordination.
They believe different cabinet members are pursuing foreign policies of their own, while the overall level of coordination and guidance is insufficient. As such, the Trump administration may fail to evolve an integrated foreign policy strategy in the traditional sense of the word. At the same time, some suggested this could prove to be an opportunity for Russia to set the agenda for Russian-American relations.
Finally, all American participants agreed that a critical factor shaping both US foreign policy as a whole and US policy towards Russia would be political developments on the home front, including anti-Trump investigations initiated by the Congress and the FBI. This spells trouble ahead for US-Russian relations.
