The Valdai Discussion Club, the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy and the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs of the National Research University – Higher School of Economics held the fifth conference of the Valdai Club Asian section in Moscow on July 6-7, 2012.
The conference signified a change in the concept framework of the Valdai Club Asian agenda. While the previous four conferences were devoted mostly to the bilateral relations between Russia and China with minor inclusions of the other Asian issues, the 2012 conference highlighted a broader set of topics, including potential for Russia’s cooperation with China, India, ASEAN and Japan along with the challenges raised by Asia’s role in global politics and economy.
The conference “Toward the Great Ocean or the New Globalization of Russia” focused on the key topics of the Russian strategy in Asia, including Russia’s relations with the region, security and economic cooperation, role of the Asia Pacific on a global scale and, last but not the least, opportunities and challenges for development of Siberia and the Russian Far East.
Apart from a wide spectrum of regional and international issues the conference agenda included an expert discussion of a new Valdai Club report of the same name that was presented to the press in Moscow on July 5, 2012. The report is authored by a group of Valdai Club experts who argue that Russia had so far failed to attach itself to the locomotive of the Asian economic growth while the United States and Europe have been able to use the possibilities offered by China and the "Asian tigers" to their own benefit.
The experts assess the prerequisites that Russia can use to catch up with Asia and stress the need to revitalize Russia’s Asian policy by splitting the powers and responsibilities of the national capital between Moscow (which is to remain a military-political capital) and a city in the Far East and Siberia (which is to become an economic capital). The report does not offer a fixed set of practical measures. On the contrary, the authors set the goal of reshaping Russian geopolitical discourse and changing the Eurocentric model of Russia's foreign and economic policy to a more balanced approach that will include Asia and Asian issues.
The conference participants generally agreed with this idea, stressing that joining Asia is a must for Russia’s future development. One of the experts from the Republic of Korea confessed that he hopes for a success of the forthcoming APEC Summit that would be hosted in the Russian Pacific city of Vladivostok. The expert even compared the recently constructed bridge to Russkiy island to “a bridge between Russia and Asia”. The Chinese participants agreed that even 20 years ago no one could imagine such a level of trust and mutual understanding between Russia and China. One of the Chinese experts has even compared this to a reunification of Germany.
Despite the positive rhetoric on Russia’s future role in the region all experts agreed that the unsolved security issue can poison integration efforts in Asia. As a Chinese scholar noted, it was necessary to evade confrontation in the Pacific and to “avoid the reestablishing of military bloc security system” which is endorsed by the USA. One of the Russian experts stressed that 95% of the world’s anti ballistic missile capabilities were located in the Pacific Ocean which was not alleviating tensions between the leading powers.
Yet the idea of a Helsinki process for Asia failed to gain support among the participants. An expert from Singapore said that applying old ideas to new realities was a dead-end and stressed the necessity of both renewing already existing concepts and creating new models and institutions in the region.
The conference agreed that Russia, China and India could elaborate new security architecture with respect to the fact that “the rise of China and India was not preconditioned by military might, but economic integration and reform.” Both Russian and Asian experts highlighted the need to avoid European bloc politics and hard-power approach to international politics which was peculiar to the European history for centuries. As a Russian academic added, “Russia is in the middle of a triangle composed of Europe, South Asia and North-East Asia.” He underlined that Russia’s position toward the parts of the triangle was changing, and the balance was still to be achieved in the future.
A Chinese expert warned the conference that “the world was on the brink of a major change” both on regional and international levels. Some of the speakers said that this change was caused by the systemic crisis in the world economy and by the rocketing rise of Asia. Experts highlighted the need for Russia, China, India, Korea and other Asian powers to shape a mechanism to coordinate monetary policies in order to avoid consequences of a possible crisis in Europe and the USA.
Indian position in the region was among the most discussed issues at the conference. The Indian experts noted that while Russian-Chinese relations were always among Moscow’s priorities, India could also become a strong and veritable partner in the region. The experts named a wide range of the possibilities offered by closer Russia-India cooperation, including high level of investment, cheap workforce and advanced technologies, especially in the IT industry.
Both Russian and foreign experts welcomed the main idea of the report and agreed with its authors stressing the necessity of Russia’s turn toward Asia. However, as a Chinese expert noted, “Russia was a great power and it needed to position itself accordingly.” He expressed an opinion that Russia was a force to be reckoned both at regional and international levels and its turn to Asia was inevitable. Some of the experts agreed with an opinion of a Russian expert that Russia is “fighting the last battles of the Cold War in Europe.” They stressed that given the crisis “Europe could not digest Russia” and Moscow’s efforts could be successful mostly in Asia.
Among the other topics raised at the conference was the question of ideologies and perceptions. A Russian expert noted that too little was done to erase Cold War mentalities and the fear of Chinese invasion or assimilation. He noted that the report could be a first step in changing the mentality of the Russian elites who considered Asia as a second-rate partner and did not understand the possibilities and opportunities stemming from Asia’s growth.
A Russian expert also stressed the importance of the cultural interaction and humanitarian aspect of relations. Most of the participants agreed with his idea that “trust was the main resource of the third millennium.” However, one of the Chinese participants noted that the Russians still had prejudices against migrant workers and if Russia wanted to repopulate Siberia and renew its human resources, it needed to be more tolerant and accepting.
The meeting was attended by over 30 participants from China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, Singapore and Russia.
