On October 25, in Sochi, the 13th Annual Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club began with the session titled “World Order: Quo Vadis?” Panelists and session participants discussed how perceptions of world order by elites evolved after the end of the Cold War, and whether a transition is possible to from the current turbulence to a new world order.
Sergei Karaganov, Dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at the Higher School of Economics said in his speech that the main causes of the current "world disorder" are very rapid geopolitical changes and the inability of global elites to understand them and to respond correctly. According to Karaganov, the main geopolitical trend of recent years is the attempt of Russia and China to change the order imposed by the United States after the end of the Cold War. Moscow is doing this more rigidly, while China takes a softer approach, but any and all of their successes in this area stimulate the US' desire to restore a unipolar world.
Karaganov added that in order to prevent military confrontation, it is necessary to strengthen the role and the importance of nuclear weapons in the modern international system.
"This is the only factor that saved the world from catastrophe during the Cold War and restrains us from a large war today," he said. Karaganov noted that it is necessary to make room for large economic and political blocs that are equal in rights, such as the ones being built now by Russia and China in Eurasia.
Fu Ying, Chairperson of Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People`s Congress of the People`s Republic of China, said in her speech that the main reason for the instability and unpredictability of the global system is the lack of trust between the major powers. China, Fu Ying said, must understand how the United States views the global order in which it wants to be a leader.
Fu Ying noted that if the current world order is based on American values and rejects other values, forcing China to either submit or fight back, confrontation is inevitable. She added that China supports an international order based on the UN system and seeks to create a "community of common interests." According to Fu Ying, the Eurasian Economic Union and Silk Road Economic Belt projects proposed by Moscow and Beijing, are examples of associations based on such principles, and their unification can yield great synergy.
John Mearsheimer, Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, said that the current turmoil among the world elites is linked to the revival of great power politics. The world’s current balance of power is approaching the situation that occurred pre-1945. The period of bipolarity and the unipolarity that followed is an exception, as before that, there were always several great powers in the world.
Today, the US’ positions are exposed to considerably pressure from China and Russia, and the latter, became "a much more impressive country than it was in the 1990s" militarily. However, Mearsheimer noted, the relations between the US and China will become the most important issue of the 21st century. The United States is making a serious geopolitical blunder by de facto pushing Russia into an alliance with China, as strategically, the US is interested in having Russia as an ally.
C. Raja Mohan, Director of Carnegie India, said that the "Washington Consensus," which presumes a unipolar world, is coming to an end, and this is connected not only with a change of the balance of power in its traditional understanding, but also from technological changes which change the nature of power. He said that the concept of spheres of influence has not lost its relevance, and that many geopolitical processes occur entirely within that logic. He also noted that the great powers must have the wisdom to show restraint and avoid confrontation.
Kevin Rudd, President of the Asia Society Policy Institute, talked about the complexity and novelty of the challenges facing the world.
"We are all grappling in the dark," he said, noting that it is important to understand the processes intellectually, as is done by the Valdai Club. According to Rudd, it can be said with certainty that the US is a global geopolitical power, that Russia has returned to being one once again, and that China is in the process of becoming one. At the same time, Europe is losing its political significance. In these conditions, leading players must develop strategic agreements on the functioning of the international system.
