A significant improvement in the US-Russian ties can be expected after Donald Trump assumes the US presidency, believes Valdai Club expert Richard Weitz, Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at Hudson Institute.
“Trump wants to work with Russia and sees Putin as a partner rather than a problem, especially against terrorism. He believes that he will have a better relationship than the current US administration, but much depends on whom he appoints to his key national security posts. His advisers are divided on how closely they want to partner with Russia on many issues,” Weitz said in comments sent by email.
A thaw in relations would pursue various goals, according to Weitz. “Trump hopes that an improvement of ties will reduce tensions with other Western countries, which seems possible, enhance joint counterterrorism operations in Syria, which seems probable, and pull Moscow away from Beijing in a broad coalition to force changes in Chinese foreign economic policy, which seems a pipe dream for now,” he says.
Recently, the view that Washington should prevent the emergence of an even closer Russia-China alliance by improving relations with Moscow has gained prominence in the US political thinking. Last month, professor John Mearsheimer said during a debate at the Valdai Club in Moscow that confrontation between the United States and China would most likely be the central conflict of the coming decades and Washington should better have Moscow on its side.
“There is no sense in driving Russia to a close alliance with China,” he said. “My hope is that China continues to rise and the United States will realize that tense relations with Russia is a bad idea,” he said.
There is a chance that the United States and Russia will step back from the “New Cold war” rhetoric of the past years and move towards a more constructive relationship, Weitz believes.
“The Trump team's desire to promote economic and energy ties with Russia could provide some needed ballast to a relationship that has too long been dominated by Cold War considerations, such as arms control and regional security. While these issues are important, they invariably position Russia and the US as rivals,” he said.
Donald Trump’s victory has raised concerns that the United States will review its commitments to NATO allies. But this does not necessarily mean less security in Europe, the expert believes. “Although Eastern European countries believe that Trump's presidency will embolden Russia to threaten them more, Trump's unpredictability may be tactically advantageous to maintaining a relationship with Russia and peace in Europe. Russian officials likely will strive to avoid antagonizing him, at least for a while,” Weitz said.
