The statement by the President of the United States of America that Europe may face the same problems as China is more informational for us than real news. US protectionism has never been a mystery to Europe. Similarly, the desire of Europe to use protectionism as an argument in international economic relations has been known at least since the times of the Venetian Republic. On the other hand, the use of the Boston Tea Party as the starting point of the struggle for US independence, from an economic point of view, was devoid of any emotionality and constituted an ordinary local act in the trade war between the young colonies and the British Empire.
Of course, the scope and forms of protectionism in relations between the USA and Europe have changed constantly. If initially the United States was a defensive nation, then for more than a century the United States has been a country which advances and imposing its own rules.
Let’s suppose that the US as an economy is on the weak side in this trade dispute. In any case, today there is no doubt that the political and economic decisions of the Trump administration will be made quickly, and they will harm the European economy in the short-term.
The European Union, in terms of the size of the economy, is approximately equal to the United States, but has a different political governance system that is not suitable for ordinary war, let alone an economic war, against the United States of America. From our point of view, a full-fledged economic conflict, which could lead to a political conflict, will not happen. The costs are too high. The existence of China, India, and Russia creates a large-scale field for manoeuvre for the influential states of the European Union and, above all, for Germany. Nevertheless, for every “Germany” in the modern European Union there is a “Poland”: a decidedly pro-American state, a proud and shameless US Trojan horse in Europe. As a matter of fact, the situation is even worse, since the Trojan horse assumed a friendly form shrouding hostile content, whereas Polish politicians present an open defence of US economic interests at the expense of the European Union.
As for Russia, a small corridor of additional opportunities is being created, the significance of which cannot be overestimated. The anti-Russian lobby, as well as the anti-Chinese one, will work for the capitulation of Europe to America – a kind of Marshall Plan in terms of the balance of opportunities, but with the caveat that Europe must provide “financial assistance” to its American overlord.
