John Tefft is the best candidate for US ambassador to Moscow to implement the policy of soft containment toward Russia. This possible appointment would symbolize the current state of relations between the United States and Russia, their tense political atmosphere and alienation.
Dmitry Suslov, Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research university – Higher School of Economics and an expert of the Valdai International Discussion Club is confident that John Tefft is the best candidate for US ambassador to Moscow to implement the policy of soft containment toward Russia.
This possible appointment would symbolize the current state of relations between the United States and Russia, their tense political atmosphere and alienation, and the policy that the Obama administration is going to pursue toward Moscow in the nearest future, which is a policy of soft containment. It would not be a 100% return to the Cold War-type containment. It is still unlikely that the sides will fall back to full-fledged arms race, including nuclear dimension, reject selective cooperation on common challenges completely and start trying to undermine and weaken each other on every spot of the Globe. Still, the US seems eager and ready to use political and diplomatic instruments to undermine and weaken Russia’s positions, place and interests in the post-Soviet space and, in Europe.
America makes no secret that it no longer regards Russia as a partner, but views it as a challenger and opponent (at best) or as an adversary (at worst). In fact, John Tefft as the likely nominee as the US Ambassador to Russia is meant to manifest this adversarial approach, to symbolize the state of discouragement and aggravation vis-a-vis Russia that prevails today in Washington and is unlikely to change in the near future.
Indeed, it would have been quite hard to select a better candidate for such an unfriendly policy of soft containment. The diplomatic record of John Tefft includes his work as the US Ambassador in Georgia, Lithuania and Ukraine – the most problematic countries for Russia among the former republics of the Soviet Union. Lithuania is considered to be one of the most anti-Russian countries within the European Union, and a strong advocate for a policy of pushing Russia out of political Europe and bringing the western Post Soviet states (Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Belarus) into the Western orbit. One of reports by European Council on Foreign Relations even called Lithuania as the most anti-Russian member-state of the EU.
Georgia – especially under Mikheil Saakashvili – was one of the most hostile anti-Russian countries in the post-Soviet space, and, at the same time, was considered as the most “success story” of the Bush administration in the region in terms of undermining Russian influence and interests and aligning with Washington. All this resulted in a military conflict back in August 2008.
As for Ukraine, John Tefft came there as the American Ambassador under the anti-Russian President Victor Yushenko, but most of his tenure served under President Yanukovych. Despite the fact that Obama Administration at that time dropped plans to bring Ukraine into NATO and reduced intensity of the containing Russia policy, the policy of bringing Ukraine into the Western political and economic order remained. In fact, instruments and pace of this policy changed, but not the policy itself. The US still continued to support pro-Western Ukrainian NGOs and maintain close relations with pro-Western (and anti-Russian) political parties, movements and figures. It was during this period, when the United States was using soft power mechanisms to pave the ground for eventual return of a Pro-Western government to power in Kiev and to encourage a pro-Western orientation of the country.
In three months after John Tefft left the post of the US Ambassador, President Victor Yanukovich decided to revise the course of Ukrainian association with the West and to elaborate a more balanced strategy, more in comfort with the country’s immediate and long-term economic needs. After this the US decided to arrange a coup d'etat in Ukraine, using the same “color revolution” scenario, which was used in Ukraine 10 years ago and in many other countries. So John Tefft did not manage the coup in Kiev himself. But this “revolution” would have been impossible without the long preliminary work of investing a great deal in the Ukrainian opposition, in political parties and civil society, which had been implemented under Tefft and by him directly.
Throughout his years as the US Ambassador Tefft absorbed all the anti-Russian sentiments that predominated in Vilnius, Tbilisi and currently in Kiev. He interprets Russian foreign policy from the perspective of these countries, and in this sense, he would be the right ambassador to implement the policy, which is currently being elaborated in Washington toward Russia. Thus, Tefft’s his role in Moscow will simply be to continue and implement the policy of soft containment.
