On August 21, 2017, the US and South Korean armed forces started their annual military drills. Nobody knows what will follow after. In any case, the rhetoric of North Korea is very threatening and decisive. But even if nothing terrible happens, the global problem of world management will not go anywhere.
It seems that the talk about the war with North Korea, the possibility of using nuclear weapons, already shocks no one. For example, reports that the Christians of Guam are praying for the aversion of a missile attack seem to many a funny news, a detail of the overall situation. Political statements of North Korean or North American opponents are built on a notorious formula: we are for peace, but if you do not stop to scare us, we will answer in such a way that you will not recover. Different kinds of leaders of these or other human communities have been talking this way for several thousand years, that is why these thousands of years have passed mainly in wars. The military also don’t think distinctively. On the one hand, they fear the war like the plague, and, on the other hand, they increase combat readiness with all their might, that no gap between the order for strike and the strike itself existed. The public is torn between fear and painful curiosity, what will happen if someone uses an atomic bomb for the first time after the Second World War.
In general, the atmosphere of a gloomy-cheerful and maliciously frivolous rattle indicates that no one has any strategy to overcome the crisis. It is the most frightening situation. By the way, this is how the World War 1 began, and World War 2 can be considered as its consequence. Before the World War 1 no one generally wanted to fight. Numerous treaties were signed with aim to prevent the war. Europe was ruled, in general, by one big family. But nevertheless the war began. By the way, today personal relations between leaders of countries, involved in the North Korean crisis, are much worse.
Of course, the war is unlikely to happen. But this will not be the result of a meaningful and serious strategic policy, but only a consequence of the fear of total destruction, since if something like an exchange of nuclear strikes between the United States and North Korea will happen, then further escalation is possible.
On a superficial level, the situation is primarily due to a total distrust toward North Korea. Nuclear weapons give this country incredible power. As a minimum, it can destroy its neighbor - South Korea and inflict terrible damage to Japan, and to all those who are nearby. As a maximum - to hit the US cities. And despite the abundance of various intellectuals willing to explain the smallest details of Kim Jong Un's and his entourage’s behavior, no one can predict for sure further actions of North Korea. Approximately the same happens at the household level. Imagine that you live near a neighbor who periodically runs around his plot and shoots a machine gun into the sky. Bullets, however, do not hurt anyone, while they fall in deserted places. But who knows, what this neighbor will do next. As a rule, in such situations the police is called.
But there is no world police, nor is there a stable world order, universally understood and shared. And even if such an order appears, it is not clear by what means and how operationally it could be managed. And these circumstances aggravate the North Korean issue, make it especially dangerous. North Korea is a kind of forerunner of future crises, perhaps even more terrible than the current one.
The matter is that North Korea itself, along with its recent relatively emerging might, is the result of numerous international contradictions and conflicts. If the great powers, first of all the United States, China and the USSR (later Russia) had more common views on the development of the world, then, perhaps, North Korea's problems would not exist, at least in such an acute form. But it happened so, that with all economic weakness and dependence, North Korea and its leadership acquired dangerous power.
And no one knows what to do now. The situation is rapidly approaching to the stalemate. For example, North Korea speaks about the inadmissibility of military exercises. Nevertheless, the exercises begin. The rhetoric increases, and, God forbid, if some incident occurs. If North Korea strikes a real blow even without use of nuclear warheads, the answer should be a blow of retaliation ... In general, it's frightening even to discuss this. The reverse scenario is also possible, when, on the contrary, the US and its allies decide to liquidate the North Korean threat preventively.
In fact, it is not so important who will be the first and who will be the second. The history of world wars shows that even centuries later the question of who pressed the trigger first often remains controversial. As a last resort, the winners have a solid answer.
But in the current history there may not be the winners. And future aliens will have to find out what happened, if they decide to land on a radioactive ground.
In general, there is no sense to describe the consequences of the possible hot phase of the conflict between North Korea and the US/South Korea. Other powers are likely to be drawn into this conflict, in spite of their obvious unwillingness to be involved. But China, Russia and Japan are just next door. Moreover, China has certain obligations to North Korea. But let us stop the drawing of the apocalyptic painting, this is not so difficult.
Another thing is more important. A terrible and global problem has arisen - the power of mankind, its technological capabilities are far ahead the possibilities of self-regulation. Nuclear weapons, all the non-proliferation efforts proved to be in vain. This is just one example of seemingly unsolvable complexities. How to make someone get rid of nuclear weapons, who does not want to do this and is ready to use it? There is no rational method, except fantastic scenarios when incredible secret agents or equally incredible scientists somehow deprive nuclear weapons of its power.
After all, new technologies, especially the communication ones, are also a colossal challenge to the mankind. The emerging new communication and financial transboundariness contains a very serious challenge to world management. I'm not for total regulation, but we cannot do without some regulations completely. We do not want to drink water with unknown additives or fly on airplanes without any quality certificates.
In general, the proliferation of nuclear weapons and the example of North Korea will further push many countries for the acquisition of atomic might. Today it is one of the most dangerous challenges.
However, people have been living with firearms for a long time. In general, it allows you to kill anyone: a neighbor, an uncomfortable companion in a car or just a passer-by with the wrong face. People live and somehow adapted to restrain their aggressive instincts. The only question is whether this applies to all politicians or only to a part of them.
