The Valdai Discussion Club conference, titled “The Future Is Being Made Today: Scenarios for Russia’s Economic Development”, was held from October 20 to 26 in St. Petersburg and Moscow. Around 100 economists and political scientists from 19 countries, including the United States, China, India, Western and Eastern European states, took part in it.
The conference opened in St. Petersburg. Eight panel discussions were held: “The Global Crisis and External Development Risks”, “Russia’s Scenarios of Development Up to 2030: The View of the World Economic Forum”, “The Optimal Scenario: What Does It Look Like?”, “International Threats and Challenges Spurring Russia’s Drift Towards Asia”, “Conditions Necessary for the Realization of the Optimal Scenario”, “The Basis of National Welfare”, “Risk Management Through Leadership”.
Experts discussed four possible scenarios for Russia’s economic development up to 2030, which depend on energy prices and the speed of reforms in the country.
The scenarios in question were labelled by a group of Russian experts, “Sanguine”, “Melancholic”, “Phlegmatic”, and “Choleric”. The “Sanguine” scenario envisions high oil prices and successful reforms, and, according to experts, will allow Russia to overtake the global economy in growth rates. On the opposite end of the spectrum is the most pessimistic scenario – “Melancholic”, in which oil prices stay low and Russian authorities reject reforms. However, the scenarios “Phlegmatic” (active reforms under conditions of low oil prices) and “Choleric” (high oil prices and lack of institutional reforms) were deemed by participants to be the most likely.
A number of Russian and foreign participants presented their analysis of the 2008-2009 economic crisis, the Eurozone crisis, and its possible consequences for the Russian and global economy.
After the conclusion of the discussion segment in St. Petersburg, experts relocated to Moscow, where meetings with representatives from the Government of the Russian Federation, the State Duma of the Russian Federation, and the Presidential Administration were arranged for them. The conference concluded with a meeting with President Vladimir Putin, which was held on October 25 at the Novo-Ogaryovo residence in the Moscow Region.
