On March 11, the Valdai Club in Moscow hosted a discussion titled “COVID-19 Five Years On. How Has the Pandemic Changed Our Lives?” Moderator Ivan Timofeev underscored that the COVID-19 pandemic catalysed profound political and social transformations, reaffirming the centrality of the nation-state and state institutions as pivotal actors in international relations.
The crisis demonstrated that only the state, by marshalling its resources, could effectively address such challenges, unveiling control mechanisms that had lain dormant but were swiftly activated in response. “The legacy of COVID-19 demands interdisciplinary study and deep reflection,” he asserted.
Batyr Berdyklychev, Head of the WHO Office in Russia, remarked, “The pandemic ushered in an era of uncertainty and introduced a lexicon of new terms: ‘lockdown,’ ‘quarantine,’ ‘social distancing.’ It permeated every facet of our lives and the functioning of society.” He noted that the pandemic laid bare the unpreparedness of most nations, including affluent and advanced ones, for a crisis of this magnitude. Official global COVID-19 deaths surpassed 7 million, though estimates suggest the true toll is far higher. A landmark achievement was the unprecedented speed in developing multiple COVID-19 vaccines – a process that typically spans a decade.
Yet, this breakthrough did not resolve issues of vaccine shortages and inequitable distribution, nor disparities in access to diagnostics, personal protective equipment, and other critical resources. Wealthy nations stockpiled supplies, leaving poorer countries struggling. This has reignited debates about production and technological sovereignty and deepened distrust of Western nations across the Global South. “The pandemic’s central lesson: no one is safe until everyone is safe,” Berdyklychev emphasized.
Valery Fedorov, Director General of the Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VCIOM), posed the question: what pandemic-induced changes have endured beyond its peak? He identified the key takeaway as the recognition of the modern world’s complexity, contradictions, and inherent challenges. Moreover, COVID-19 showcased the remarkable adaptability of societies, with the nation-state remaining the cornerstone of social organization. Another lasting consequence is the elevation of public health as a national policy priority. It became evident that healthcare spending, often criticized by economists as excessive, is in fact insufficient.
“Health has ascended to the top of the agenda at all levels. Spending has risen, will continue to rise – and society overwhelmingly supports this shift,” Fedorov said. He also highlighted other enduring effects, such as heightened attention to mental health and well-being, the normalization of digitalization across the economy, consumption, work, and daily life, the proliferation of continuous and remote education, and the rise in consumption as a coping mechanism for stress.
John Gong, Vice-President of Research and Strategy at the University of International Business and Economics – Israel, observed that some political forces continue to politicize the pandemic even years after its conclusion. This underscores how global natural disasters can be weaponized for political ends – a tactic Washington has not shied away from. He also noted that COVID-19 compelled governments worldwide to reassess the resilience of supply chains in the context of economic security and sovereignty. For instance, China significantly diversified its supply chains in response. Discussing the global economic recovery, Gong Jun emphasized that, based on historical patterns, the post-pandemic growth phase is expected to last several years before a new recession emerges. However, recovery rates diverge sharply between wealthy and poor nations, with the latter lagging – while China’s recovery trajectory aligns more closely with that of developed economies.
Igor Makarov, Head of the School of World Economy and Laboratory for Economics of Climate Change at the Moscow-based Higher School of Economics University, argued that the pandemic disrupted the natural cyclicality of global social and economic processes. It followed an extended period of uninterrupted GDP growth in major economies, leading economists to anticipate a crisis in the early 2020s that would resolve accumulated contradictions. Instead, COVID-19 exacerbated these tensions.
A striking example is inequality: while crises typically reduce disparities, the pandemic widened them. Stock markets surged while unemployment soared and labour incomes plummeted. COVID-19 also intensified polarization in political and socio-economic spheres. In terms of global governance, the pandemic marked a systemic failure, with each country acting unilaterally. Three years of progress toward sustainable development goals were lost, and trust in the international order underpinned by global institutions was severely eroded, accelerating deglobalization. “The pandemic did not trigger immediate catastrophic consequences for the global economy. But the contradictions it intensified remain unresolved. It has fundamentally altered humanity’s development trajectory,” Makarov concluded.
Rasigan Maharajh, Chief Director of the Institute for Economic Research on Innovation at the Tshwane University of Technology (South Africa), highlighted the profound impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic on South Africa. Officially, it claimed over 100,000 lives in the country. The government responded swiftly, implementing quarantines and vaccination campaigns. However, lockdowns dealt a severe blow to the well-being of South Africans, with many losing their livelihoods. Civil society grew increasingly vocal, challenging some government measures and fuelling ongoing political tensions. Maharajh stressed that the lessons of COVID-19 are particularly pertinent given the looming threat of future pandemics, including those linked to climate change. He emphasized the critical role of the state in mitigating such threats and called for urgent reforms of international institutions, including the WHO and WTO, in light of the “vaccine apartheid” experienced by much of the world.
Kirill Telin, Research Fellow of the Faculty of Political Science at the Lomonosov Moscow State University, views COVID-19 not as a harbinger of radical change but as a manifestation of the immense tensions that had accumulated due to other factors, including economic ones. For decades, many had grown disillusioned with the globalization narrative – outsourcing, deindustrialization, and a lack of stability. They yearned for a bygone era, feeling adrift in an accelerating world, while much of the younger generation grappled with restless anticipation of an uncertain future. The pandemic shattered both nostalgia and anticipation, “pausing the world” and releasing this pent-up tension. Telin also highlighted the crisis of trust in state authority triggered by the pandemic and the tendency of governments to respond emotionally rather than rationally to challenges.
