Valdai Club

On April 5, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled Gas for Rubles: Buy It If You Can. Discussion moderator Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, invited participants to discuss the consequences of a possible exclusion of Russia from the European gas market, as well as the difference between the situation with gas and the situation with oil and coal.

Alexander Losev, General Director of Sputnik Asset Management JSC, pointed out that the rejection of Russian energy resources would likely lead to a drop in living standards in Europe to the level of the middle of the last century. He also noted that the model of capitalism based on endless credit expansion has come to its end and a large-scale economic crisis awaits the world. Against this background, the “fight for democracy” and support for Ukraine can serve as a cover for a project to manage the decline in living standards.

Alexey Gromov, Chief Energy Director of the Institute of Energy and Finance, stressed that Europe, as of the beginning of the Russian military operation, depends on Russia for 30–35 percent for coal, natural gas, and oil. At the same time,  Europe's ultimate ability to rebuild its fuel and energy balance strongly depends on the variety of energy carriers it uses. The most difficult thing is with gas supplies, since Russian gas enters Europe mainly through pipelines, and in this sense, the Europeans have no alternative to Russia. “Until the end of 2022, Europe will not be able to significantly reduce the volume of Russian gas supplies,” the expert suggested, adding that Europe has already made a political decision to move away from Russian gas, and by 2026 or 2027, American and Qatari LNG will probably be able to replace Russian gas.

Fu Chengyu, Dean of Carbon Neutrality International Academy, said that Western sanctions against Russia are causing a real economic shock around the world. Rising oil prices affect not only the energy industry, but also all sectors of the global economy. “We need to think about how to curb the rise in energy prices,” he said. “The easiest thing to start with is to stop imposing sanctions on the Russian energy sector.” In his opinion, the current  will lead the world economy to recession. “Western countries are punishing not only Russia, but the whole world,” a Chinese analyst noted. However, as he believes, Asia will only be happy if Russia directs its energy resources to Asian markets.

Abbas Maleki, a professor of Energy Policy at Sharif University in Tehran and former Deputy Foreign Minister, analysed the prospects for green energy and the green transition in the new environment, as well as the significance of nuclear energy and energy security issues. Speaking about the situation with sanctions, he suggested that Russia could cooperate with other energy suppliers. In particular, according to him, the supply of oil products from Iran to Russia looks like an extremely promising direction.

Nikolay Tsvyatkov, Associate Professor, Institute of Legal, Political and Sociological Research, Academy of Sciences of Moldova (2010-2020), presented a  Moldovan viewpoint. At present, Russia is the main supplier of gas to the Republic of Moldova; in many respects it has no alternative. Having lost Russian gas, the country may face a man-made disaster. So far, the situation is saved by the neutral status of Moldova, which it maintains despite the pressure of the European Union, and through its experience maneuvering between the interests of the big players.