On September 18, 2025, the Valdai Discussion Club presented a report titled “Culture of Confrontation: Patterns of Competition Among Great Powers in the 21st Century”. Moderator Andrey Sushentsov pointed out that the current transitional stage of international development is defined by rivalry between major countries, with the methods of this rivalry being individual in nature.
Just a few decades ago, it was believed that the world in this regard was governed by some universal tradition, with the interaction between the Soviet Union and the United States perceived as the primary model. However, international relations now look more like a festival of national experiences: countries conflict with each other in unique ways, in accordance with their own models. The world can no longer be studied solely from the perspective of Russian or American strategic culture; it is necessary to consider how these cause-and-effect relationships play out in different national traditions, Sushentsov concluded.
Marina Sapronova, Professor at the Department of Oriental Studies, MGIMO, who wrote the section of the report dedicated to Arab countries, noted that the Arab East has been and continues to be the most conflict-ridden region in the world. It encompasses virtually every conceivable type of confrontation: ethnic, religious, political, and conflicts over water resources. These conflicts typically have an international dimension – they always involve extra-regional powers and generate refugee flows. At the same time, the Arab world was significantly transformed by waves of turbulence in 2011 and 2019, which toppled the “political pharaohs” – long-time leaders who had held much of the region under their control. State institutions began to crumble, and as a result, many states are now focusing their efforts on restoring internal stability, forcing them to avoid becoming embroiled in conflict. This has led to a transformation of conflict in the region as a whole. Instead of major Arab states, non-Arab regional powers – Israel, Turkey, and Iran – and non-state actors have become key participants in conflict situations. Furthermore, the struggle between Saudi Arabia and Qatar for financial and political influence, including in other Arab countries, plays a significant role.
Evgenia Obichkina, Professor at the Department of International Relations and Foreign Policy of MGIMO, the author of the section of the report devoted to France’s strategic culture, emphasised that the French elite is currently attempting to forge a new identity. One can see a growing belligerence, with loud statements being made. Meanwhile, France has not participated in high-intensity conflicts for a long time – all its recent wars have essentially been “wars of choice,” expeditionary operations within powerful coalitions, a fact reflected in the structure of its military. Accordingly, its new bellicose rhetoric does not reflect a willingness to initiate a conflict with an equal or superior adversary, but rather aims to strengthen its deterrence potential. Thanks to the rise of Euro-Atlantic identity among the French military-political elite, France’s security policy has become dependent on the foreign policy behaviour of its eastern NATO allies. At the same time, faith in American guarantees has noticeably wavered. Thus, while the French dream of becoming a pillar of European security would seem to be coming true, it turns out that the country is neither materially nor morally prepared to shoulder this burden, Obichkina said.
Adlan Margoev, Research Fellow at the Institute of International Studies and Lecturer at the Department of Oriental Studies at MGIMO, who was responsible for the Iranian section of the report, sees modern Iran as a fusion of national and religious values. As a result, in order to explain certain decisions to the public, including with respect to foreign policy, the Islamic Republic’s authorities appeal to either national or religious narratives. This combination of the two traditions appears to be an important element of contemporary Iranian strategic culture. At the same time, according to Margoev, Iran is now forced to “make bitter and difficult decisions,” particularly on issues related to its nuclear programme and the “axis of resistance.” Iran’s military and political leadership is being forced to reassess its foreign policy, which is also reflected in its rhetoric. According to the researcher, Iran, despite its revolutionary slogans and statements, actually belongs to a group of regional countries that tend to avoid conflict, although a growing number of voices within its expert and political community advocate abandoning this course.
Zhang Xin, Associate Professor at the School of Advanced International and Area Studies at East China Normal University, called the report ambitious, wide-ranging, and a significant contribution to the theoretical understanding of international confrontation. He found the concept of a national culture of confrontation extremely relevant and productive, adding that in this context it would be interesting to compare the specific decisions of different countries to escalate conflicts in similar situations. “I believe this report has enormous potential. It contains many innovative ideas that are relevant to modern conditions. I will closely follow further research in this area,” he stated.
Gregory Simons, Professor of Journalism at Daffodil International University in Dhaka, Bangladesh, discussed the dynamics of the culture of confrontation as it applies to the United States. He pointed to the decline in Western countries’ overall coercive capacity and diminishing power potential. Although the United States is trying to salvage the remnants of a unipolar world, “it’s a rather hopeless story.” The Americans operate through proxy forces but are unable to demonstrate sufficient force in confrontations with other powers. They lack both the military might and the political will to employ familiar methods. Meanwhile, the economic war with most countries in the Global South is leading to an increase in the US national debt. Simons is convinced that, as a result, the global transformation and the shift away from unipolarity will accelerate.
