On May 18, the Valdai Club held an expert discussion titled “The US and China after the Beijing Summit: Is a New Cold War Possible?” Moderator Timofei Bordachev emphasised that most international observers perceive China-US relations as a major political standoff that will shape international reality for a long time. In official rhetoric and publicity, the US views China as a technological and economic competitor, as well as a target for pressure. China, meanwhile, avoids confrontation even at the rhetorical level, believing that time is on its side.
Reviewing the results of the US-China summit, American diplomat and scholar Ambassador Chaz Freeman noted that even if US President Donald Trump would like to sideline China, this is impossible: China must be treated as an equal. Trump's visit to Beijing signifies recognition that China is a superpower, that its interests must be taken into account, and that it can both improve and worsen the global situation in many ways. The Taiwan issue is particularly important, as it could lead to a direct clash between nuclear powers. Such a war, which China does not want but is prepared for, is absolutely undesirable for Trump and would, regardless of the outcome, dramatically deplete US resources. At the same time, US policy appears inconsistent: the American elite views relations with China as a zero-sum game and is categorically opposed to any concessions to Beijing. This greatly complicates any diplomatic efforts. Some new mechanisms in relations with China are nevertheless emerging, primarily in the economic sphere. However, relations between the US and China are quite hostile, albeit unlikely to reach the point of full-blown hostility. This has not changed as a result of Trump's visit, Freeman concluded.
Ivan Zuenko, a leading research fellow at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO University, also believes that the summit didn't fundamentally change anything and therefore shouldn't be compared to Richard Nixon's visit to China in 1972 or similar historical moments. The media frenzy surrounding Trump's visit to Beijing is largely due to the fact that so much time has passed since the last American leader visited China. Meanwhile, the state of relations between the US and China remains unchanged: they remain rooted in rivalry, and China, as before, continues to strive to prevent this rivalry from escalating into outright conflict. Mutual trade remains a crucial element of this relationship, in which both countries have a strong interest. However, another aspect is even more significant for China: the emergence of a mutually accepted formulation describing the relationship between Washington and Beijing as "constructive strategic stability."
Discussing the validity of the term "new Cold War," Zuenko noted that this is not a return to the bipolarity of the 20th century, which relied on ideology and military-political alliances. China does not create such alliances or spread its ideology through forced methods, fearing overexertion in the process of confrontation. According to Zuenko, China is somewhat sceptical of its own resources, so it will likely not be tempted to shift from the current status quo to a struggle for global hegemony.
