Valdai Club

The situation in Central Asia is often viewed through the prism of various kinds of challenges resulting from both the general state of affairs in the world, conflicts at the regional level, and the rapidly changing situation in individual countries.

There will be no peace in the Middle East without the settlement of the Palestinian problem. But nobody can say if it will regain its place at the top of the international agenda, which has been overstrained with mutual complaints and mistrust.

What distinguishes the situation in the Middle East is the specific set of crises, disputes, conflicts of various intensity. As a result, all this forms one picture. The US’s withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal, the symbolic dimension of the Middle Eastern politics and the threat of ISIS “reanimation”– Irina Zvyagelskaya, Chief research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, discussed these issues in her interview with valdaiclub.com.

The Middle East is increasingly important in the fabric of international relations. Developments there have greater consequences for the rest of the world than in the Cold War era. This is not primarily due to the destabilizing impulses that keep the region on centre stage in world politics, for the Middle East has long known turbulence and conflict and the security  challenges it posed in the past were hardly less significant than today, especially given the emergence of nuclear weapons in the region.

In an interview with valdaiclub.com, Irina Zvyagelskaya, сhief research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, explains why the airstrikes of the US-led coalition will only lead to more confrontation between the Assad government and the Syrian opposition forces.

The year 2017 was a turning point in the transformation that began in the Middle East six years ago. Although none of the bloody conflicts is over and some are escalating instead of abating, fears that all states in the region were doomed have proved alarmist. Positive change is gaining momentum, albeit slowly: local players are looking for political solutions to conflicts, and the demand for economic and political reform is growing in the region’s weakened and vulnerable countries.

There is a high degree of trust in the Russian-Israeli relations, Valdai Club expert Irina Zvyagelskaya believes. “We have disagreements on Syria and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. But we can maintain good relations despite these disagreements and understand each other’s concerns,” she said in an interview with valdaiclub.com.

The capture of Raqqa raised hopes for the possibility of developing military success. From this perspective, the well-known formula “no military solution in Syria exists” can only turn into a boring mantra for those who will try to maximize their positions for the future in the time remaining before the final victory over ISIS.

Military conflicts, terrorism, lack of natural resources, unemployment, disparity – all these are but a fraction of problems, which persist in the Middle East.  Political rivalry at regional level as well as global actors’ interference lead to increasing tensions. Why does the region turn out to be so vulnerable to the conflict?

After the "Arab Spring," the Palestinian-Israeli conflict was politically marginalized. In the Arab world there were stormy events, and the attention of global and regional powers was distracted. Even the dialogue, which at the very least was conducted between the Palestinians and the Israelis, was virtually stopped after 2014. The long settlement process was frozen.