Valdai Club

The ASEAN 2025 Summit in Kuala Lumpur has already been dubbed a “historic turning point” by some observers. While this may be an exaggeration, the event was indeed a testament to the vitality of ASEAN, which had been going through difficult times in recent years, write Georgy Toloraya and Elena Pyltsina.

The legal uncertainty surrounding the border conflict destabilises the entire Southeast Asian region, which prides itself on its ability to maintain peace and dialogue through the diplomatic framework of the ASEAN Way. An escalation of the conflict contributes to a rift within ASEAN itself, as the principle of consensus is the cornerstone of the Association's functioning, and a full-scale conflict between its two members paralyses it and prevents effective decision-making on other international issues, which also narrows Russia's room for manoeuvre.

Over the past year since the signing of the Treaty on Strategic Partnership between the DPRK and Russia in June 2024, it has become clear that while for Russia it resulted in direct practical results, for the DPRK the new alliance relations not only bring practical benefits, but have also become an important factor in acquiring a new identity on the world stage, Georgy Toloraya writes.

Until recently, Russian-North Korean relations were regulated by the Treaty on Good-Neighbourliness and Cooperation of 2000, as well as the Pyongyang and Moscow Declarations of 2000 and 2001, signed at the highest level, which the DPRK side considered even more important.

Relations between the two Koreas have entered a phase of cooperation and reconciliation but history shows that it may be followed by another period of confrontation. South Korean society is about fifty-fifty in its attitude to cooperating or deterring North Korea.

Moscow hopes that Seoul will play a more active role in the "peaceful, political settlement, working out reciprocal steps in this process". The parties agreed that this remains "the only possible way to make progress in resolving the problems existing in the sub-region".

The Putin-Kim summit has a symbolic meaning. It has restored Russia’s position in the resolution of the Korean issue and outlined a scenario which could serve as an alternative to a return to tensions. Now, a scenario where negotiations resume has become more realistic, even in a multilateral format.

North Korea and Russia are planning to meet in the near future, amid the aftermath of the frustratingly unsuccessful US-DPRK summit. The state visit could increase both Russia's value in the Korean diplomatic process and Russia’s role as a mediator between other nations. This will give the summit’s participants more freedom to manoeuvre, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) Professor Georgy Toloraya, executive director of Russian National Research Committee on BRICS research, says.

The second summit of US President Donald Trump and leader of the DPRK Kim Jong-un took place in Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam, on February 27–28. High hopes were pegged on this summit: the sides were expected to push forward the denuclearization process of the Korean Peninsula and also to reach agreements on the end of the state of war.

The Korean theme at the Eastern Economic Forum-2018 is the most notable. This is not accidental, because a moment of truth came for Russian policy towards the Korean Peninsula. It is time to choose whether we will actively pursue our line or adapt ourselves to the strategy and tactics of other countries, taking into account common geopolitical interests.