№6 Strategic Forecasting: The Impersonal Dimension of Intelligence
Valdai Papers_#06_Strategic Forecasting
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The sixth Valdai Paper “Strategic Forecasting: The Impersonal Dimension of Intelligence” introduces to the reader the part of the intelligence which is not common among government and state intelligence services. Dealing with the fundamental events this analysis method allows to understand the major processes underway and to predict general patterns of the future developments. In the first part of the paper the author presents the general principles of the strategic modelling, while the second part serves an illustration of his reasoning. The article gives explanation to the major events of the 20th as well as 21st century, including WWI, WWII, Cold War, Orange Revolution in Ukraine, Georgian War in 2008, and finally current Ukrainian crisis.

George Friedman is Chairman of Stratfor, a private company he founded in 1996 that publishes geopolitical analyses and forecasting of international affairs. He is the best-selling author of books on national security and geopolitical forecasting including “The Next 100 Years” and “The Next Decade.” His forthcoming book "Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe" will be released on January 27, 2015.Dr Friedman graduated with a Bachelor’s Degree from the City College of New York and a PhD in Government from Cornell University.