The Valdai Club experts said at a special night session that the US-Russian plan for Syria is not only an attempt to resolve the crisis but it can also help US President Barack Obama out of a jam. Two years ago, he said that Bashar Assad must step down, but Assad has remained in power and now the world is waiting for him to adopt a decision on chemical weapons.
The Valdai Club experts said at a special night session that the US-Russian plan for Syria is not only an attempt to resolve the crisis but it can also help US President Barack Obama out of a jam. Two years ago, he said that Bashar Assad must step down, but Assad has remained in power and now the world is waiting for him to adopt a decision on chemical weapons.
Ariel Cohen, Senior Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation, said the United States has been exhausted by two wars and has a large budget deficit. Congress and most Americans are against a new war, he said. President Putin has given Obama an emergency exit to help him avoid crossing the line.
Mr. Cohen also said that the delivery of Syrian chemical weapons to ports for subsequent liquidation would be impossible without international cooperation. The United States will hardly contribute, so Russia will most likely have to shoulder the burden of liquidating Syrian chemical weapons, he said.
Alexei Malashenko, member of the Scientific Council and Co-Chair of the Religion, Society and Security program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, offered his vision of possible developments in Syria. “The first scenario includes a strike against Syria despite the general enthusiasm about the US-Russian fraternization over Syria. Why? The reason is simple: Bashar could cheat. If this happens, then a strike will follow. What would be next? I can’t rule out a massacre and a catastrophe, both militarily and humanitarian,” Malashenko said.
He believes, though, that a second peace conference on Syria can still be held in Geneva. Assad may step down as a result of it, giving way to the opposition which would be controlled by external forces. In the third scenario proposed by Malashenko, Bashar Assad will hold elections and lose, even though he would receive over one-third of the vote.
A Western air strike would definitely bring al Qaeda to power in Syria, said Tarek Heggy, a liberal Egyptian author and political thinker. “Why repeat the mistake of Iraq if the president can leave his post in a political scenario, without destroying the country’s infrastructure? Russia is the only country that can convince Assad to step down, to preserve and protect the country’s infrastructure and to select a leader from among the moderate opposition,” Mr. Heggy said.
Professor Anatol Lieven, chair of international relations and terrorism studies, War Studies Department at King’s College in London, said that in the long run the United States will most likely try to find a diplomatic solution, but it will need the assistance of Russia and other countries for this.
