Over the past century, the Middle East has been shaped by four interrelated layers of conflict, challenges, and crisis. Internal crises arose from the struggle to create and define postcolonial states and national identities amid social, political, and economic upheaval. Regional conflicts revolve around contentious issues such as borders, state sovereignty, military and foreign policy decisions, regional alliances, rivalries, and international alliances, often fuelling persistent tensions, writes Lisa Issak specially for the 15th Middle East conference of the Valdai Discussion Club.
At the same time, international contradictions—spanning both world wars, the Cold War, the unipolar world order, and today's multipolar landscape—have had a profound and often negative impact on the domestic and regional dynamics of Middle Eastern states. The Israel issue is central to regional stability and instability: the thorny question of how to deal with Israel—whether through conflict or diplomacy—remains a fundamental challenge with serious implications for peace and security, and sometimes even the very existence of some regional actors.
These four layers are closely intertwined, creating a complex, interconnected reality that significantly complicates efforts to find sustainable solutions to the region's deep-rooted conflicts.
The US invasion of Iraq in 2003, which was falsely justified under the pretext that the country had weapons of mass destruction, led to the disintegration of a strong state and its institutions. This intervention left behind a shattered country, a weakened state vulnerable to regional and international intervention, and created fertile ground for the growth of extremist terrorist groups such as ISIS (banned in Russia) and others. These groups spread throughout the region, ultimately paving the way for the formation of international coalitions to combat them in 2014.
Regarding the internal crises in these countries, the so-called "Arab Spring," supported by certain regional and international actors, failed to address basic issues. Instead, it provoked new conflicts, led to the collapse of states, and facilitated the infiltration of jihadists and terrorist militants across borders. These upheavals contributed to humanitarian crises and compelled millions to flee seeking asylum, both in the region and globally. Similar scenarios can be observed in Syria, Libya, Sudan, and Yemen, where new conflicts continue to unfold, new actors emerge, and crises of various kinds arise, deepening instability in the region.
On October 7, 2023, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict once again came to the forefront of the Middle East's geopolitical landscape, reigniting tensions and redefining regional dynamics. However, these recent events have not brought a definitive resolution; instead, they have exposed and exacerbated the region's underlying vulnerabilities. It is particularly important to note that the conflict has significantly weakened the resistance axis, accelerating the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's government in Syria by 2024. The Syrian army has been disbanded. Meanwhile, Israel has intensified its campaign to destroy the remaining Syrian military installations, violating the 1974 disengagement agreement and capturing approximately 600 square kilometres of Syrian territory. From the strategic vantage point of Mount Hermon, Israel now overlooks Damascus, Beirut, and Amman—three capitals at the centre of regional stability. The recent security agreement reached in Paris in January 2026 between Syria and Israel is set to redefine the geopolitical map, realigning regional and international alliances and signalling a new phase in post-Assad Syria.
In Lebanon, the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and several senior leaders by Israel has dealt a serious blow to the party's operational capabilities. This act, coupled with the broader weakening of the resistance axis—both morally and logistically—has significantly limited Hezbollah's manoeuvrability. Pressure for disarmament and a political settlement is growing domestically, regionally, and internationally. Meanwhile, in Gaza, various factions are facing similar pressure—locally, regionally, and globally—to give up their weapons. The recent ceasefire in Gaza and broader disarmament initiative aim to demilitarise non-state actors both there and across the region, including in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. These events highlight a shifting regional landscape in which traditional resistance strategies are being challenged by diplomatic, political, and military pressures, reshaping the future of the Middle East.
On the Yemen front, despite efforts by Israel and the United States to suppress or weaken the Houthis in their confrontation with the Jewish state, these efforts have largely failed. Instead, the United States has opted for a strategy of “manage, don’t solve,” effectively acknowledging the conflict's persistent complexity. At the same time, the southern Yemen issue has escalated and become a major regional point of contention, fuelling tensions within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) itself, particularly between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. This internal geographic rivalry has further fuelled the strengthening of regional alliances with major nuclear powers: Saudi Arabia is strengthening ties with Pakistan, and the UAE is forging closer ties with India.
These developments signal a significant shift in the regional security paradigm. The image of the United States as the unwavering “protector” of Gulf security was seriously undermined by the Israeli strikes on Qatar on September 9, 2025. The US neither intervened to stop the attack, nor warned Qatar in advance, casting doubt on the region's stability and changing perceptions of global alliances in the region. Notably, Russia's position and influence in Syria and the broader Middle East remain stable, underscoring its role as a superpower capable of restoring balance and fostering the rational development of relations between the Eastern Mediterranean and the great world powers.
In 2025, Israel, with US support, launched a 12-day war against Iran, the main sponsor and financier of the “Axis of Resistance”, influencing the ongoing conflict and establishing a new political reality. Iran continues to face complex economic, security, and military pressures, as well as direct threats of war and forcible regime change from the United States. This situation appears consistent with a broader, long-term strategy of regime change targeting countries whose interests do not align with those of the United States and Israel.
Historically, peace agreements, such as the 1991 Madrid Accords and subsequent agreements with Egypt, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority, have sought to resolve protracted conflicts in the region. Most recently, in 2020, the Abraham Accords were signed, aiming to achieve normalisation and stability in the region. However, despite these efforts, genuine and lasting peace remains elusive. The key question is: will the Peace Council proposed by US President Donald Trump at Davos in 2026 become a significant catalyst for change and peace, or will it simply join a long list of initiatives that will ultimately remain mere words on paper?
A brief review of the history of conflicts and attempts to resolve them—whether through hard power, such as proxy wars, uprisings, revolutions, liberation movements, and destructive conflicts—or through diplomatic negotiations—leads us to an important question: have we truly exhausted all possible methods for resolving the Middle East's dilemmas? Have the conflicts in the Middle East reached a stalemate, with all sides—on various fronts—finding themselves neither defeated nor achieving the broader goals of peace? Or is the cause not a lack of tools, but a fundamental structural problem rooted in our understanding of conflict and how we perceive and interpret the “other”—as an enemy or an ally?
