The elites in many countries of the political West prefer to follow in the wake of the United States. At the same time, such countries of the world majority as China, Russia, India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia demonstrate the ability to protect their interests and act in the conditions of a multipolar international environment, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
The modern agenda of discussions of world politics and international processes is often focused on the West: socio-political processes in Western states, foreign policy dynamics, problems and successes. The Western-centric view dominates in analytics and the media. Moreover, the dominant tradition of understanding international relations, the epistemology of the international, is a Western intellectual product — the theory of international relations as an academic discipline was formed and developed for a long time exclusively in the West. However, the 21st century has demonstrated an increasingly obvious transformation of the global agenda, where the main events occur outside the Western world. The focus of the future is on the strategies, actions and dynamics of relations between the countries of the world majority, where the majority of the planet’s population lives and the most dynamic socio-economic and political processes are taking place.
One of the central players of the new century is China. Its ability to sustain economic growth and overcome internal imbalances and external constraints allows it to shape key trends in the global economy, confidently moving in its chosen direction of development. In particular, we are talking about the centre of international economic relations shifting to the East. No less important is the interaction between China and India. These two countries, with enormous demographic, economic and political potential, have a colossal influence on world politics. However, border disputes between them, despite de-escalation efforts, remain a point of tension. The United States is actively trying to use friction between Beijing and Delhi to put pressure on China. Washington is actively selling Delhi advanced weapons, including air defence systems, reconnaissance drones and maritime patrol aircraft, and joint military exercises are held on a regular basis. The active involvement of the United States in Indian affairs only increases mutual distrust between Delhi and Beijing.
Although the role of the West is declining, the United States remains the most important centre of economic gravity and political initiative. In this context, we closely followed the American electoral process. The Donald Trump administration, although not new (we are familiar with the Trump phenomenon from his first presidential term) is in a much more advantageous position this time. During his first term, Trump was essentially unable to pass any major legislation due to the fact that he was tied hand and foot by the Democratic majority in Congress. In 2024, Donald Trump not only won an unconditional victory in the electoral colleges and the popular vote, but also got a free hand in the context of Republican control of the Supreme Court and Congress. Despite these circumstances, the inertia of the state apparatus and resistance within the political system will still create serious obstacles for Trump’s team, which is already being called “revolutionary”. This could lead to intra-elite “guerrilla warfare”, which will inevitably affect international politics.
Many countries, especially American allies, will seek to play on the contradictions of the domestic political struggle in the United States. For a long time, the US, acting pragmatically and selfishly, has strengthened its economic influence at the expense of European countries. This circumstance, as well as the protracted and costly conflict surrounding Ukraine, which does not bring obvious benefits to European countries, undermines the pyramid of trust of allies in the United States. Shortly after Trump’s victory in the elections, French President Emmanuel Macron declared the need to “work for a more united, strong and sovereign Europe.” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made a phone call to Moscow, realising that any settlement in Ukraine would essentially be Russian-American one — naturally with Ukrainian participation, but over the heads of the Europeans.
The modern international environment requires countries to be able to act autonomously, based on an adequate formulation of national interests. The key to success in an unstable world order is the development of subjectivity and strategic thinking. However, these abilities are turning out to be a waning asset. The elites in many countries of the political West prefer to follow in the wake of the United States. At the same time, such countries of the world majority as China, Russia, India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia demonstrate the ability to protect their interests and act in the conditions of a multipolar international environment and, as a result, they themselves become centres of gravity of new international processes that will determine the shape of the future.
