According to Rubinsky, Emmanuel Macron is unlikely to enter the second round of voting. However, if one takes into account the trends of the last elections and referendums in other countries, nothing can be ruled out. "The rise of the populist national-patriotic waves, hostile to globalization and so on, is not only a French phenomenon, but a pan-European one. By the way, Trump's victory in the United States is also a vivid example "- the expert said.
The most probable is the duel between Marine Le Pen and François Fillon in the second round. "Today Fillon has certain advantage, but it is not guaranteed, because the rigidity of his program and its rightist character makes him vulnerable to critics not only from the left, but even from the center-right", - Rubinsky said.
It would be an exaggeration to call François Fillon a Moscow candidate. The position of the National Front and its leader Marine Le Pen is a much more "pro-Russian". She does not hide it.
Thus, it is too early to say that Fillon is doomed to win. "However, - Rubinsky continued – he has more chances than others. Now he is faced with a choice: what to do next, how to conduct his campaign. For some of the Fillon's entourage it would be preferable to soften the declared program, and it seems to be done. On the other hand, he seeks to strengthen the national-patriotic appeal in his program, sovereignist topics: security, struggle against crime, international terrorism, and here his own stature (as former prime minister and several times-minister) looks more convincing than the figure of Marine Le Pen".
Moreover, inside the National Front there are also differences. "On the far right flank now stands niece of Marine Le Pen - Marion Maréchal-Le Pen. She is a quite promising politician and stands for the traditional position of the National Front in its entirety, while Marine Le Pen paradoxically tries to bypass Fillon from the "left", - Rubinsky said.
According to the Valdai Club expert, the situation with the Left in the upcoming elections is more clear. It is obvious, that the future common candidate of the Socialist Party, which will be chosen after the upcoming primaries, has no chances of a breakthrough to the second round, Rubinsky concluded.
d François Fillon in the second round. "Today Fillon has certain advantage, but it is not guaranteed, because the rigidity of his program and its rightist character makes him vulnerable to critics not only from the left, but even from the center-right", - Rubinsky said.
It would be an exaggeration to call François Fillon a Moscow candidate. The position of the National Front and its leader Marine Le Pen is a much more "pro-Russian". She does not hide it.
Thus, it is too early to say that Fillon is doomed to win. "However, - Rubinsky continued – he has more chances than others. Now he is faced with a choice: what to do next, how to conduct his campaign. For some of the Fillon's entourage it would be preferable to soften the declared program, and it seems to be done. On the other hand, he seeks to strengthen the national-patriotic appeal in his program, sovereignist topics: security, struggle against crime, international terrorism, and here his own stature (as former prime minister and several times-minister) looks more convincing than the figure of Marine Le Pen".
Moreover, inside the National Front there are also differences. "On the far right flank now stands niece of Marine Le Pen - Marion Maréchal-Le Pen. She is a quite promising politician and stands for the traditional position of the National Front in its entirety, while Marine Le Pen paradoxically tries to bypass Fillon from the "left", - Rubinsky said.
According to the Valdai Club expert, the situation with the Left in the upcoming elections is more clear. It is obvious, that the future common candidate of the Socialist Party, which will be chosen after the upcoming primaries, has no chances of a breakthrough to the second round, Rubinsky concluded.
