The protest movement needs to radically change its tactics, by focusing on the elections and election monitoring missions, which in itself are a great resource. Obviously, this new tactic will drive away some of the activists in Moscow, but in general the public has already been energized. At this stage the opposition needs to focus on long-term efforts to create structures in the regions.
Following the September 15 rally in Moscow, the media rushed to conclude that the opposition movement had run out of steam. This is, however, not an indication of the failure of the nationwide opposition movement (simply because it has never existed), but only an activity cycle in Moscow, of which there will be many more in the future.
The opposition as we know it, the people who attend the rallies and demonstrations, has been concentrated in Moscow. Potentially they could evolve into a major movement. Since December 2011, the opposition’s tactics have concentrated on reacting to the actions of the government, which for its part has been producing new reasons for people to protest.
This opposition never intended to spread the protest movement beyond central Moscow. It has been mesmerized by the idea of “seizing the capital.” And it is only natural that this opposition has no interest in the forthcoming regional elections. Neither does it have any particular interest in the municipal problems in Moscow, as evidenced by the fact that Yevgeniya Chirikova, the leader of the movement to save the Khimki forest, who plans to run for mayor of Khimki, was the only speaker at the September 15 rally to raise the issue of elections.
The leaders of the Moscow opposition have turned themselves into a committee for the organization of rallies and demonstrations. And the public has been drawn into a futile debate with the government over the number of protesters that showed up at the last rally. This tactic is destined to fail, just as the ongoing arguments about the notorious “Putin rating”, whose slump, according to the opposition, is supposed to justify future protest actions. Not only are these “numbers debates” completely pointless, but they are worthless by the very fact of being a reaction to government actions, rather than a discussion of alternative policies.
The organizing committee has been calling for continued rallies and demonstrations, but these tactics are a dead end. The opposition has to work on strengthening its positions beyond Greater Moscow. It should seek to attract a million of people, but this million will only show up at the polling stations and not at the squares of central Moscow. The March of the Millions should become a march to the regional elections. This is the only way for the opposition to win the political sympathies of millions, rather than calling on them to hold a new rally like in September.
I believe the protest movement needs to radically change its tactics, by focusing on the elections and election monitoring missions, which in itself are a great resource. Obviously, this new tactic will drive away some of the activists in Moscow, but in general the public has already been energized. At this stage the opposition needs to focus on long-term efforts to create structures in the regions. This will help produce a wide range of new political parties, capable of putting up a real fight in the next elections.
The opposition has already missed its chance to challenge the government in this year’s regional elections, so it needs to prepare for the future polls. To do that, the opposition has to stop scaring the public and start engaging with it in a language that people understand. Already at the September 15 rally there were attempts to address social issues, including the increasing utility rates, the unpopular education reforms, poor healthcare, etc. However, it makes no sense to ask the Moscow hipsters about these problems. The opposition needs to try and spread the protest beyond Greater Moscow.
