While fears of civil war and armed confrontation appear unrealistic, present-day America is a country swept up in a toxic wave of division and bitter political infighting. Pavel Koshkin, Senior Research Fellow at the Georgy Arbatov Institute for US and Canada Studies, explores the nature of political polarisation in the United States and looks at the hot-button issue adding fuel to the fire—immigration.
The socio-political divide in contemporary America continues to deepen amid the domestic struggle between Democrats and Republicans. Preparations for the midterm congressional elections scheduled for November 2026 are only intensifying tensions: both parties regularly exchange accusations, each attempting to shift responsibility for the current situation onto the other. The principal source of disagreement is President Trump’s controversial immigration policy, as well as the current administration’s ambiguous methods of containing protest sentiment.
In particular, a new irritant has emerged in the form of mass deportation raids against undocumented refugees in Democrat-leaning states, coupled with the killing of two US citizens by officers of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency (ICE) in Minnesota. The victims were the poet Renee Nicole Good and Alex Jeffrey Pretty, a nurse at a veterans’ hospital. Their deaths provoked a wave of public outrage on all fronts—from spontaneous street demonstrations in major American cities to the halls of Capitol Hill and the red carpets of major film and music award ceremonies (Golden Globe Awards, Grammy Awards), as well as at sporting events (the Super Bowl National Football League championship and the Olympic Games in Italy). The White House was condemned not only by numerous legislators—including Republican members of the President’s own party—but also by prominent figures from the entertainment industry.
Opinion polls have likewise revealed a negative trend for the US administration. According to a recent NBC News survey, the proportion of US citizens criticising Trump’s immigration policies rose from 34 per cent in April last year to 49 per cent in February 2026. These findings correlate with data from the Associated Press and the NORC Center, according to which support for mass deportation raids against undocumented refugees declined from approximately 50 per cent to 38 per cent.
The domestic climate has grown so heated that certain academics and former members of the House of Representatives have begun speaking of the risk of a new civil war. Such concerns were voiced, in particular, by former congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene—previously a Trump supporter—and Claire Finkelstein, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania. Both suggested that the fatal incidents in Minneapolis could, in theory, serve as a trigger for armed confrontation between supporters of the current administration and its opponents. One factor behind such speculation may have been widely circulated media reports that a self-defence group calling itself the “Black Panthers” was allegedly prepared to take up arms in order to protect residents from immigration police in American cities (in some sources the group was referred to as the “Black Lions”). The organisation has declared itself the successor to the eponymous left-wing African American movement, which frequently resorted to violence to achieve political aims in the 1960s and 1970s.
Subsequently, however, the US President—apparently wary of serious reputational damage and adverse effects on electoral ratings—made concessions to Minnesota Governor Tim Walz following their phone call. First, the federal presence in the state was reduced by 700 agents (from an initial deployment of approximately 2,000—3,000). Then, on 12 February, the administration’s immigration policy coordinator, Tom Homan, announced the withdrawal of immigration enforcement personnel from the troubled region altogether. Numerous investigations have been launched in connection with law-enforcement officers acting beyond their authority. Moreover, on 5 March, under pressure from Democrats and members of his own party, the president dismissed the Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem, who in effect became the object of a “ritual sacrifice” intended to deflect public criticism.
These compromises by the White House only temporarily reduced tensions. Polarisation has not abated: commentators sympathetic to liberal positions questioned the sincerity of the authorities’ intentions, given that the overarching course of migrant deportation remained unchanged (incidentally, on 13 February, the acting director of ICE, Todd Lyons, stated in the Senate that around 1.6 million illegal immigrants are subject to removal from the country—roughly half of them have criminal records). Trump himself refused to acknowledge any error in his actions and is unlikely to do so in the future, given his temperament. Further fuelling controversy are journalists’ claims that the Department of Homeland Security has allegedly intensified covert, comprehensive surveillance of social media in order to counter activists, including those who obstruct ICE officers in detaining and deporting refugees. All this suggests that the domestic political situation in America will continue to exhibit high turbulence and considerable conflict potential.
Nevertheless, polarisation in the United States significantly affects the functioning of government and is one of the principal causes of administrative disruption. It was precisely disagreements between Democratic legislators and their Republican colleagues over funding for the Department of Homeland Security—which oversees ICE—that led to yet another government shutdown—a partial closure lasting three days in early February. This marked the fifth such episode during Trump’s presidency, including his first term; the previous shutdown lasted a record 43 days in October–November 2025.
Disputes over the department’s budget remain ongoing. Broadly speaking, liberals and certain moderate conservatives insist on radical reform of the immigration enforcement agency, urging lessons to be drawn from the killing of two American citizens by federal agents. This is, in reality, a protracted story. On 13 February, the opposition in the Senate blocked the extension of appropriations for the Department of Homeland Security. As a result, its full functioning is once again in question.
Notably, against this backdrop public trust in state institutions and political elites continues its inevitable decline. This trend was already evident during Joe Biden’s presidency but has since intensified. According to research by the Pew Research Center, only 17 per cent of Americans trusted the government as of December 2025 (by comparison, in 1958 the figure stood at 73 per cent). These findings correspond with more detailed data from the non-governmental organisation Gallup, indicating that more than half of Americans are dissatisfied with both Congress and the White House.
In sum, the “culture war” described as early as 1992 by the sociologist James Hunter is intensifying in the United States. This struggle is accompanied by acute informational and ideological confrontation between Republicans and Democrats. Conservatives and liberals advance radically opposing worldviews, envisioning the future of their country in divergent value frameworks. Today this competition is extremely tense and at times leads to human tragedy. It remains, however, a controlled rivalry that does not preclude pragmatism, flexibility, or the possibility of domestic political “reset”. The forthcoming midterm elections in November 2026, followed by the 2028 presidential race, will clarify the path America ultimately chooses and the direction in which its political pendulum shall swing.
