The Middle East is currently experiencing one of the most critical and tense periods in its history, characterised by complex geopolitical crises and escalating conflicts. As the region faces the imminent threat of a full-scale regional war, there is an urgent need for serious dialogue aimed at establishing comprehensive and sustainable peace. This article first analyses the current situation in the Middle East and then elaborates on the requirements for achieving lasting peace in the region, writes Prof. Mohammad Reza Dehshiri for the 21st Annual Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club.
Current situation in the Middle East
The Middle East is grappling with multiple interconnected crises, including the war in Gaza, frequent attacks by Israeli settlers on Palestinian civilians, military confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel, and the conflict between the Houthis and Israel in the Red Sea. Moreover, direct confrontation between Iran and Israel have intensified recently.
In fact, the Al-Aqsa Storm operation on October 7, 2023 placed renewed global attention on the Palestinian issue, increasing international pressure on Israel to recognise an independent Palestinian state, and disrupting the ongoing normalisation project between Arabs and Israel. This shift has led to a resurgence of resistance ideologies, overshadowing ethnic and nationalistic tendencies within the Arab world.
As tensions between Iran and Israel escalate, the regional power dynamics are shifting dramatically, effectively burying the Abraham Accords. On August 1, 2024, Israel’s assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in Tehran, followed by the martyrdom of Lebanese Hezbollah leader Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian General Abbas Nilfroushan of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Beirut, signalled a dangerous escalation. Iran in its riposte sent a strong message to the Zionist regime in its October 1st operation that further aggressions against Iran and destabilisation of the region could have painful consequences for Tel Aviv. Consequently, the aggressive airstrike of the Zionist regime against several military centres in Iran on October 26, 2024 was another clear violation of international law, particularly the prohibition against the threat or use of force against the national sovereignty of states. These actions were condemned by a number of countries, with major Arab states denouncing the Israeli strikes on Iran and their potential to destabilise the region. In this context, a diplomatic plan of action is needed to reduce tension and eliminate the occurrence of war.
The evaluation of the current situation in the Middle East reveals several key points:
The Palestinian Crisis as Central to Stability: No sustainable peace or stability in the Middle East is possible without resolving the Palestinian crisis. In addition, real stability in the region can only be achieved through mutual respect and adherence to international law.
Lack of Mediating Power: No government is prepared to play a leadership role in the region, reflecting deep divisions among Arab states.
Arab Avoidance of Conflict: No country is ready to involve itself in the chaos. The Arab countries are trying to avoid entering a confrontation between Iran and Israel, and are prioritising national interests over regional entanglements.
Risk of Crisis Expansion: There is a possibility that the crisis will spread and increase tension in the region. Therefore, all actors have emphasised the need to reduce the risk of war. In this context, the element of time plays an important role for reducing the level of war risk and preventing it from going beyond the control of the involved parties.
Shifting Opportunities for Peace: It is possible to create an opportunity during the current crisis to change the direction towards peace. Also, there are great risks that the crisis will get out of control. There are many factors that can change the course of the crisis such as the destructive consequences of the one-year war in Gaza, current Israeli military strikes against Hezbollah as well as the results of American elections.
Israel's Military Focus: The only actor which wants to increase war and tension in the region is Israel. In fact, the root of all problems in the region is the occupation of Palestine by Israel; otherwise, the Palestinians tend to live in peace and prosperity. Israel's goal is to occupy all Palestinian lands based on the idea of “from the river to the sea” and to put aside the idea of two states. It is only by stopping Israeli aggression and occupation that the region can hope for peace and stability. For the establishment of peace in the Middle East, there is an urgent need to stop Israeli crimes and to restore some level of deterrence against this regime. Undoubtedly, the continuation of the occupation by Israel, its crimes and illegal actions in the region, especially the genocide of the Palestinian people and aggression against Lebanon - which has continued in the shadow of the all-round military and political support of the United States and some other Western countries - are the main causes of tension and insecurity in is the region.
Technological vs. Geopolitical Competition: The battle of technology and geopolitics persists. The Middle East is witnessing a conflict between technological power and geopolitical power. In a situation where Iran has significant geopolitical advantages, Israel's weakness is precisely its geopolitical vulnerability; the territory of Israel is limited to a small area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. This geopolitical difference has shaped their strategies. While Iran prefers to conduct operations in the “gray zone” with the support of a network of non-state allies, Israel has relied on its pre-emptive strike strategy, based on technological superiority. Although technology has had an increasing impact on military and security equations, geopolitical factors continue to play a key role in shaping the course of regional competition. Technology may have reduced the weight of geopolitical realities, but it can never eliminate them completely. Furthermore, the dynamic of Washington’s rivalry with Russia and China in the Middle East may redefine geopolitical codes in the region.
US Influence on Regional Stability: Peace constitutes the first enemy of the United States and the biggest threat to Washington, because world peace will end the US dollar empire built on war. When there is peace in the world, the US military industry will be completely out of business. All US military bases in the world, all aircraft carriers, military aircraft, intercontinental ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction, as well as all war-supporting industries will become redundant and the American war machine would be idled by inefficiency.
Requirements for the establishment of peace in the Middle East
The roots of the Middle East crises can be enumerated as follows: Israeli occupation policies, external interventionism by the great powers, and finally dissention and disunion among regional countries emanating from sectarian and religious disputes as well as the divisive plans of former colonial powers. To realise peace, several key requirements must be addressed:
Accepting the role of regional powers in the peace settlement: For the establishment of stability and peace in the region, there is a need for a balanced, multifaceted, dynamic and comprehensive strategy to be adopted by the regional powers so that a powerful region based on network security would emerge. De-securitisation, the promotion of economic cooperation, and the implementation of joint regional projects can bring the people of the region closer together and create common interests for the Middle Eastern States. In this context, encouragement and support for cooperation between Iran and the (Persian) Gulf Cooperation Council is essential for crisis management.
The increase of pressure against Israel and increasing demand for a ceasefire in the region: By deliberately targeting civilians in populated areas and using advanced technology to engage in ethnic cleansing, Israel has clearly violated international law, humanitarian principles, and numerous UN resolutions. The continuation of Israel's aggressive war in the Gaza Strip is a threat to the region and the entire world. Gross violations of international law and the United Nations Charter, breaches of the "Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide” and the “Geneva Conventions of 1949" by Israel are considered serious violations of international peace and security. Urgent measures should be taken to stop the killing machine of the Israeli regime and to prevent the further escalation of the situation in the region by stopping Netanyahu’s belligerent and aggressive actions. A united voice should be raised based on international law mechanisms and international institutions such as the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice to isolate extremist factions in Israel. There is the need for the immediate and urgent mobilisation of the international community to stop the genocide, war and aggression against Gaza and Lebanon and to curb the Zionist regime's warmongering acts in Lebanon and genocide in Gaza. Ending the military operations of the Israeli regime in Lebanon and Gaza and the occupation of Palestine, ending the occupation of Gaza by Israeli forces; and the ceasefire between Iran and Israel would be important steps for restoring peace in the region. The general public in the region expects that China and Russia, as great powers, will use their political leverage in the Security Council to settle a just and sustainable peace in West Asia by stopping the aggressive occupation of the Israeli regime. They may mobilise their efforts for the realisation of geographical requirements as well as political conditions for the formation of an independent Palestinian State based on the referendum in the occupied territories.
Support for Indigenous Security Structures: The will of the great powers to support the indigenous security order: If the great powers have the will to establish peace without an inclusive-exclusive attitude, they should consider the importance of multilateralism in regional cooperation, emphasise on multilateral and endogenous order and give special priority to diplomacy. All parties involved in the Middle East should stop the military confrontation to ensure peace and security based on mutual interests and common concerns of regional States in the framework of a non-zero sum game. They should mobilise their collective actions in order to realise both negative and positive peace in the region through step by step policy and based on gradual and incremental conditions.
Acknowledging Iran's Role: The role of Iran as a major actor that would like to establish peace and stability in the region should be recognised. Iran is a rational actor and the main stabilising force and game changer in the regional equation. It has reached the level of maturity and self-confidence in terms of security so that it can change the threats to the opportunities in the Islamic world. Iran is still a key player due to its "grey zone" strategy as well as its smart and advanced defence doctrine, which prioritises indirect conflict and asymmetric deterrence against Israel through its support for non-state allies called the axis of resistance.
Promotion of Economic Development Initiatives: The promotion of economic cooperation and development initiatives in the region, including trade agreements and joint infrastructure projects, can help build interdependence and reduce the likelihood of conflict.
Engagement of Civil Society: Grassroots movements and civil society organisations should be engaged in peace-building efforts. These entities can help mobilise public opinion in favour of peace and foster dialogue at the community level, bridging divides created by political conflicts.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the pressing crises in the Middle East urgently demand a re-evaluation of strategies for peace. The combination of historical grievances, geopolitical manoeuvres, and rising nationalist sentiments complicate the already volatile landscape, yet opportunities for constructive dialogue and cooperation exist.
After the election of Massoud Pezeshkian as the new president of Iran, he raised the slogan of regional cooperation and the creation of a “strong region” through the reduction of tensions between Tehran and the Arab countries in the southern part of Persian Gulf.
The unprecedented joint military manoeuvres in the Sea of Oman, between Iran and Saudi Arabia in October 2024, is an example of de-escalation and regional cooperation between these two regional powers.
The danger of Israeli warmongering and expansionism has compelled the two past rivals to cooperate constructively. In addition, in the midst of the tense situation between Iran and Israel, the refusal of most Arab countries, such as Saudi Arabia, to allow Israel to use their airspace to strike Iran, as well as their quick and widespread condemnation of the Israeli attack on Iran and expression of their concern regarding the escalation of tension and the spread of war in the region, demonstrate that Iran has been successful in managing the crisis through intensive negotiations with its Arab neighbours.
In facing the fire of conflict and division, regional players, supported by the international community's commitment to justice and cooperation, must act decisively to extinguish the flames and foster a lasting peace in the Middle East.
