People are believed to have inhabited Asia for tens of thousands of years, and over this time, they have accumulated a vast body of knowledge. Yet, as recent events demonstrate, there is still much to learn – including how to cope with new challenges, writes Valdai Club Chairman Andrey Bystritskiy in the run-up to the 16th Asian Conference of the Valdai Club.
The most crucial step is to recognize that we have entered a new, previously unseen polycentric world. This does not mean that everything is unfamiliar; much remains the same, yet much is new. The modern world’s elements have reconfigured themselves in a novel way. To recognize and classify this new reality, we need a system of concepts – a kind of thesaurus or vocabulary to help us make sense of it.
In this regard, politicians often resemble military personnel, who are frequently accused of preparing for a past war. This underscores the essential need for foresight. In every era, there are those who propose and implement innovative solutions, and this naturally gives them a decisive advantage.
The use of drones is a prime example. A drone itself is a simple device, whether airborne or seaborne. But when combined with low cost, mass production, and advanced control systems, it has produced a colossal effect, profoundly changing the nature of modern warfare.
The modern polycentric world possesses a number of fundamentally new features. First and foremost is an unprecedented level of global interconnectedness and interdependence. This interconnectedness is rooted in logistics, trade, and business on one hand, and in technology, communications, and engineering on the other. Of course, these two dimensions are closely intertwined, complementing and reinforcing each other.
As a result, our world has, in a sense, doubled with the emergence of a digital space. Many processes from the ordinary, physical world have migrated into this new realm, sometimes merely duplicating themselves.
The ongoing political battles within Europe are a case in point. Brussels tries its utmost to suppress even a hint of rebellion among its members. While its success is mixed, the efforts are telling. In Moldova, for example, the authorities resorted to overt violations of democratic procedures, which were clearly noted even by acquiescent Western media. Overall, the role of so-called middle powers is evidently becoming more important.
It is also significant that the quality of elites in countries of the Global South, or the World Majority, is improving. A new generation of leaders, largely unburdened by personal experience of the colonial past, has come to power almost everywhere. Their attitude toward other nations, particularly the West, is predominantly rational and free from any sense of subservience or inferiority. While they do not seek conflict, they will not allow their national interests to be overlooked, forging for their countries what can be termed strategic autonomy.
At the same time – and I must reiterate this – there is a universal recognition of our growing interdependence, despite other tensions. This recognition exists within the context of our shared globe and its real geopolitical constraints. Geography has always been a decisive force, and Asia is a prime example. Straits, steppes, rivers, mountains, climate patterns, ocean currents, and prevailing winds have consistently shaped the rise and fall of civilizations, the flourishing of trade, the outcomes of wars, and the migration of peoples. Strategic points like the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, or the Dzungarian Gate and the steppe corridor, were controlled by powers that, in doing so, profoundly shaped modern civilization. Even today, global development remains deeply dependent on this interplay of geographic and political factors.
In short, it is impossible to list every characteristic of this new world.
As noted, the world is becoming increasingly interconnected, yet it remains full of conflicts. Western nations, with a tenacity that could be better applied, persist in dividing the world into black and white, good and bad, attempting to drag everyone – including Asia – into conflict and confrontation. The United States engages in dizzying geopolitical manoeuvres to impose its superiority on all. Unlike the Europeans, there is less of a purely ideological drive here; instead, one finds a calculated, albeit controversial and likely short-sighted, rationalism. The tariffs imposed by President Trump are disrupting markets worldwide, including in Asia. While the precise ramifications are difficult to gauge, the effect is clearly negative, as these measures undermine the principles of free trade.
Surprisingly, pressure is also being exerted on supposed partner countries in Asia, such as India, often in a humiliating manner. In contrast, despite all the hostility toward China, the formal attitude toward it remains more respectful – though this does not change the underlying dynamic.
Unfortunately, the US and Western Europe are also openly attempting to restrain the technological development of many Asian countries. They prohibit the sale of the most advanced semiconductors not only to China but to others as well, and they block American companies from sharing their achievements in artificial intelligence. To be fair, Washington’s technology restrictions can affect not only Global South nations but even its own allies. However, this is of little comfort. In response, Asian countries, including China, are advocating for open cooperation in digital technology and AI.
I reiterate: we have all found ourselves in a new world, both familiar and unfamiliar, and we must learn to live in it. People can only learn by talking to one another, discussing current events, and anticipating the future. Asia is a colossal part of the world, encompassing Russia, China, India, Turkey, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and many others. We all need to communicate, understand, and empathize with each other. We need, as I said before, our own system of concepts – a vocabulary for creating a shared discourse that unites global and local agendas.
Therefore, I believe the upcoming 16th Asian Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club, held in partnership with the Ankara Institute, will be fascinating. Taking place on November 10-11 in Istanbul under the title “Eurasia in a Fragmented World,” it will help us explore the Asian vocabulary.
