Valdai Club

The report was prepared by the research team of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club and presented at the Foundation premises in Moscow.

On Thursday, January 21 the Valdai Club presented its annual report titled "War and Peace in the 21st century. International stability and balance of the new type". The event was hosted by Andrey Bystritskiy, Chairman of the Board of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club, and Fyodor Lukyanov, the Foundation’s Research Director and Editor-in-Chief of the Russia in Global Affairs journal.
In his initial remarks, Lukyanov said that the post-Cold war period, which only two decades ago was seen as the beginning of a new world order, was coming to an end. It has become clear, he stressed, that dismantling of the post-1945 system was mistaken for transit to a new era.

According to Lukyanov, vague shapes of the new system came to be seen in 2015. New players and centers of power are emerging. Economic sanctions, which used to be an anomaly, are becoming a new norm: if in the 1990s and 2000s they were invariably followed by war, this is not the case now, as the nuclear deal with Iran demonstrates. Confrontation is becoming a norm, too. International politics should not aspire to build a heaven on earth, as it seemed two decades ago, but to prevent a real catastrophe.

It has become clear, Lukyanov said, that the nature of globalization has changed and now it will be based on the interaction between regional blocs. Greater Eurasia will be one of the major regional blocs, but the notion of “alliance” between Russia and China is irrelevant, as strategic independence is the supreme value for both countries, preventing them from entering any kind of alliance.

At the same time, there are no unsurpassable contradictions within such blocs, Lukyanov emphasized. Just as the US will not split with Europe, there will be no conflict between Russia and China, he said.

Participants in the discussion that followed mostly praised the report, saying that it combines conciseness, precision, and accuracy and has a high scholarly value.

Boris Kagarlitsky, Director of the Moscow-based Institute of Globalization and Social Movements, presented a gloomier view of the current era. According to him, the predominant trend of our time is the global disintegration of capitalism, which leads to collapse of traditional structures at both international and national levels. The rise of non-systemic presidential candidates Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders in the United States is a case in point, he said.

President of Minchenko Consulting Communication Group Yevgeny Minchenko pointed out that values remain essential, despite the changes in global environment. He wondered if Russia could offer a set of values, which could unite the Greater Eurasia just as western values unite Western Europe and North America.

Andrey Ionin, chief analyst with the GLONASS Non-Commercial Partnership, said that global changes were intertwined with the technological progress. If one nation possesses the technologies, it can easily conquer others without the use of military force. Accordingly, regional blocs will be organized in line with what technologies they control.

He was opposed by Vladimir Yevseyev, Public Policy Research Center Director, who said that military power was only gaining importance. To illustrate his point, he said the peace process in Syria could only be launched after a military victory on the ground.

Summarizing the discussion, Andrey Bystritskiy thanked the participants for their remarks, which he said would be taken note of in the Club’s further research activities.

The report was prepared by the research team of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club and presented at the Foundation premises in Moscow.





Download Report WAR AND PEACE IN THE 21st CENTURY: International Stability and Balance of the New Type in English and in Russian (PDF)



Image Gallery: Рresentation of a report entitled "War and Peace in the 21st century. International Stability and Balance of the New Type"




Opportunities of Balance. By Andrey Bystritskiy



The Goal Is to Streamline Chaos and Rationalize Diversity. By Fyodor Lukyanov



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Galleries: Рresentation of a report entitled "War and Peace in the 21st century. International stability and balance of the new type"