On June 2, the Valdai Discussion Club held the presentation of its new report, “Toward the Great Ocean: Turn to the East. Preliminary Results and New Objectives.”
Sergei Karaganov, Dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at the Higher School of Economics, began the discussion by outlining the roots of the Russian “Turn to the East.” He noted that the idea emerged in the late 1990s, but despite its advancement in think tank circles, it was stalled by Western-centric official paradigms.“We encouraged the turn because we foresaw a worsening of relations with the West, and the fact that Europe was entering a serious crisis. That is why a most prompt “Turn to the East” was necessary, as we were depleting the opportunities we had received in Europe,” Karaganov said.
See photo gallery of the event.
Alexander Lukin, director at the Center for East Asian and SCO Studies at MGIMO University noted that the payoff from Russia’s “Turn to the East” will only come to fruition when Russia begins to look at rapprochement with Asian countries as a goal in itself, rather than a reaction to worsened relations with the West.
Karaganov also said that the “Turn to the East” only pressed forward after the Ukrainian crisis, which became a point of no return in an overall worsening of relations with the West in previous years. He also noted the importance of comprehensive changes in Russia’s foreign trade, largely dependent on the export of raw materials and hydrocarbons.
“Sanctions, in this sense, are seriously helping us, while the ‘Turn to the East’, with a partial replacement of commodity groups will also contribute to the recovery of our foreign trade system,” Karaganov added.
Discussion moderator Fyodor Lukyanov, Valdai Discussion Club Research Director, noted that Russia in any case should strive toward a decrease in geopolitical tensions, and that the report gives a clear alternative to “trying to fit into” the West’s line and “bargaining with sovereignty,” while also creating conditions for economic growth.
Timofei Bordachev, Director of the Valdai Club Eurasian Programme, took time to criticize a point of view that emerged in Russian media, about the lack of progress in regional integration, noting that the report was written to evaluate the situation and define prospects.
“First, it is the scaling up of Russia’s politico-economic presence and cooperation with Asian countries overall. Second, it is the inclusion of Siberia and the [Russian] Far East in international value chains, both horizontally and vertically. Third, it’s the creation of real substance in the confluence of Eurasian economic integration and Chinese investment and transportation initiatives”, Bordachev said.
Lukin also said that many in Russia hold the opinion that conflict with the West should have led to aid from China, which did not happen, and that led to criticism of rapprochement with Asia. He countered the opinion, saying that cooperation with China grew in many spheres, that the decrease in trade was more a consequence of the recession, while the expectation of large monetary infusions was initially unrealistic.
“It should be said that if anyone had the expectation that China would come to our rescue - these typically Russian ruminations that we will sit around, and because the West didn’t come, China will come and give us everything - were, to put it mildly, not very reasonable,” Lukin said.
During the question and answer portion of the presentation, Bordachev noted that Russia and China have essentially the same interests in Central Asia. He also expressed the opinion that China’s maximum possible engagement in Central Asia is in Russia’s interests, as economic inequality and social tensions continue to plague the region.
“My personal opinion is that we must by all means pull China into Central Asia and Kazakhstan. Russia needs more China in Central Asia and Kazakhstan because if this doesn’t happen, in ten years, we will be at war there on our own,” Bordachev said.
Karaganov noted that Russia’s strategic goal in Asia is security and comfort. He also said that Russia now lacks the political resources to improve relations with Asia because it has to allocate more policy attention to tensions with the EU and in the Middle East.
Discussion participants also suggested multiple topics for the next report in the “Turn to the East” series, including international law issues, the creation of a new economic model for economic ties with Asia, cooperation with countries of the region other than China, and military policy.
