The conference aims to capture both continuity and new dynamics in regional processes, evaluate their consequences, and outline possible future scenarios together with a broad circle of specialists and representatives from across the Middle East.
Programme of the 15th Middle East Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club and the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences
“Continuity and Novelty:
The Middle East Amid a Collapsed World Order”
Moscow, February 9-10, 2026
February 9, Monday
09:55 – 10:00 Opening of the conference (live: Russian, Arabic, English)
10:00 – 11:30 Session 1. Forget About Balance or Build a New One? Opportunities and Limits of Power in the Middle East in the Second Quarter of the 21st Century (live: Russian, Arabic, English)
In less than three years, the geopolitical landscape of the region has been transformed. Everything has changed—the balance of power, the system of relations between regional powers, as well as the role, capabilities, and behaviour of external players. Moreover, the process continues to accelerate. Should we expect the system to reach a new equilibrium? Or should we now rely solely on our ability to fight back at the right time?
12:00 – 13:30 Meeting with Sergey Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation
15:00 – 16:30 Session 2. Conflicts Without Resolution? Is There Any Chance to End the Hostilities?
Decades of attempts to resolve conflicts have yielded little tangible results. Their number may be stable, but their nature is rapidly changing. The scale of violence ebbs only to surge again, and there are no viable options for settling the disputes in sight. Has the region entered a global era where compromise is being displaced by power politics? Are there any sound principles for conflict resolution left?
17:00 – 18:30 Session 3. Political Islam – What's Next?
As the activity of political Islam in the Middle East has declined, nationalist narratives—promoted by both individual governments and certain non-state actors —have gained prominence. However, over the past two years, Islamist forces have reasserted themselves. Are Islamist and nationalist projects inherently antagonistic, or is convergence possible? What risks does the proliferation of either ideology entail? To what extent can they consolidate non-state actors?
February 10, Tuesday
10:30 – 12:00 Session 4. What Kind of Wars Should We Prepare for, and How?
The second decade of the 21st century has elevated military military power to the forefront in all respects. On the one hand, this is a return to the basic forms of international relations. On the other, the military component itself is undergoing fundamental changes. What do modern wars reveal about prevention—and about how to fight if prevention fails? And how are current events reshaping the arms markets?
12:30 – 14:00 Session 5. Political Systems Amid Global Instability and Crisis of Public Trust (live: Russian, Arabic, English)
The global rise in instability is compelling governments everywhere to sustain domestic stability without resorting to isolationism or allowing destructive external factors to take hold. The goal of maintaining social harmony and public trust is becoming paramount. There are currently no universal solutions to this problem, as previous strategies are unable to keep up with the transformations taking place.
15:00 – 16:30 Session 6. Digital Era: What Does Information Sovereignty Mean and How to Achieve It? (live: Russian, Arabic, English)
Digital technologies deliver unprecedented connectivity and transparency at all levels. Yet transparency, once believed to unlock great opportunities, is now becoming a key tool of influence and a factor increasing the vulnerability of states and individuals. Governments charged with protecting their jurisdictions need tools for sovereign control. Regulation is necessary, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to implement, and failure to keep pace with the current level of digitalization carries the risk of comprehensive underdevelopment.
